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Your theorized pivot is tidy, appealing, and, as the kids say, “cope.”
People have been theorizing a moderate backlash to Trumpism since roughly 2017. Each new headline is met with thinkpieces about how the GOP can finally jettison this guy and go back to repealing Obamacare. The most credible time was after the election, when Pence shot down the Eastman plan. It didn’t happen then, and it won’t happen now, because the GOP doesn’t want to lose.
Trump has the moderate wing over a barrel. He is absolutely able to parlay his outsider branding into a protest vote big enough to hand the ‘24 election to the Democrats. A drawn-out primary battle with DeSantis will ruin the guy for some fraction of the Republican base. No, as long as Trump wants the job, the party can’t moderate too far.
I agree with you about Trump but I don't know what other option DeSantis has. If he goes full MAGA the best case scenario is that he denies Trump the nomination by splitting the vote, but even that's a long shot. What do you think he should do, were you advising him? Telling him not to run isn't an option.
If he isn't willing to wait until 2028 and telling him not to run isn't an option, then I'd tell him to spend large sums of money on a marketing company run by a close friend/family relative of mine. It wouldn't change his chances of victory at all (they would stay at a solid 0), but if he's stupid enough to think taking on Trump in 2024 is a good idea it would be unethical of me to let him keep his money.
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Hm.
I want to say run perpendicular. Hit more moderate issues and avoid contradicting Trump on his traditional talking points: jobs and exceptionalism. Do some deficit hawking, at least if that’s compatible with whatever he tries to say about inflation. Maybe immigration works out okay for Ron; I don’t know how well his stunts in that area have been received.
That might all just be a recipe for disaster, or it could be compatible with Ron seeking a VP seat. Not really sure how that works historically.
Honestly, I think it’ll be a moot point; Trump will call him “Small Dick Ron” or something, and the campaign will be over.
That seems to me even more of a surefire way for him to get slaughtered. I mean, who the hell is this supposed to appeal to? People who like Trump enough that they'll be offended by Ron attacking him but who don't like him enough to actually vote for him? People who want Trump but don't think he can win but a guy who says all the same things as Trump but isn't Trump can? He's not getting the VP seat because he already refused to kiss the ring when he declined to seek Trump's endorsement, and Trump is already pounding him mercilessly even though he's not in the race yet, so that ship has sailed. There's literally nothing to gain at this point by trying to appease Trump or Trumplicans. I'm not saying it will work, but I think taking the offensive is really his only shot. Call out Trump for not building the wall. Call out Trump for criticizing states that pass restrictive abortion bans (right after signing the six week ban in Florida which may or may not actually be popular). Call out Trump for his womanizing. If he says Ron "Desanctimonious", lean into it and say something to the effect of "It's easy to appear sanctimonious to someone with no morals whatsoever". He's already implicitly called out Trump for the Stormy Daniels indictment, saying “Look, I don’t know what goes into paying hush money to a porn star to secure silence over some type of alleged affair, I can't speak to that". He said the thing was politically motivated, which is so obviously true that the New York Times isn't even saying otherwise, so it's not like he's toadying by criticizing it, but it's best that people are reminded that the man was banging a porn star while his wife was at home with their newborn son. Say that the Jan 6 committee is political theater but nonetheless lambast the rioters and Trump for election denial and all the rest of it. He doesn't have to be moderate, he just has to criticize Trump. Then bring up all the stuff he's done in Florida that's effective and say that Trump could never have that much of an impact. No of this is necessarily true, I just don't think there's any way to tiptoe around the issue anymore.
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Desantis needs to run in the primary as ‘trump but gets stuff done instead of getting distracted by his ego’. Remember the Republican base, even most of the trump republicans, doesn’t actually like trumps personal behavior, so hitting him there is also a good strategy.
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