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First time poster so i'm not very well versed in the formalities here just to let you guys know.
Will try to be as direct as possible.
Main statement, Im of the coviction that modern civilization is doomed to collapse. Because of energy constaints, namely the energy return on investment (EROI) of: peak oil and renewable energies. Further more the energy density of oil alternatives is not dense enough to accomodate the modern standard of living.
Here a couple pieces of information that support my viewpoint: Number 1: "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society (2014)" research paper by Charles A.S Hall and others. Number 2: The article "renewables-ko-by-eroi" on the website energytransition.org. Number 3: "Energy, EROI and quality of life (2014)" by Jessica G. Lambert and others.
A couple of assumtions i made are that high EROI is needed for modern living. In case of big EROI losses there will be a massive increase in civil unrest. There is enough coal in the ground to supply our energy needs. However this is not very applicable in cars nor is it good for the envirmoment, which in turn will cause civilisation collape in the longhaul.
Some previous discussion points:
Nuclear, Nuclear is very good on the small scale. However there is not enough uranium to support longterm global reliance on nuclear energy. If the entire world would switch to nuclear energy today, the known uranium supply will be depleted within 5 years. See the article: "Why nuclear power will never supply the world's energy need" on phys.org.
New Oil, while we are still finding new oil deposits, the discovery rate of the new oil depositst follows a downward trend. (the line has the same figure like a normal-distribution) Some pieces that support this statement, See 1: The USGS forecast. See 2: "Ecology in Times of Scarcity" by John W Day and others. See 3: the article "The Growing gap" on planetforlive.com. Also the new discoveries are very often in locations that are diffuclt to access. Think of very deep sea or antartica, et cetera. This ensures the Energy cost getting this oil will be high, so it is coupled with a high EROI.
It would be very nice to hear some counter viewpoints! Because looking at the future and seeking a bleak one is not nice.
If i forgot anything please let me know!
All the best,
William
It's more like 10,000 years. The 5 year thing is how much is currently mined and stockpiled in warehouses. You might as well say civilization can't continue because we only have so many months of oil and coal already extracted, in warehouses. This article is hilariously bad. Furthermore, current technology would allow us to get significantly more energy from uranium, however poor regulations (to fight nuclear proliferation) prevent us from doing that. Check out breeder reactors. Beyond that, we can use a lot more than just uranium.
But that's even what the article says next:
To your next point, yes, (traditional) peak oil was true and we have resorted to non-traditional methods to continue extracting it, which require huge energy commitments. Notably, frack wells quickly lose most of their production - instead of a decades long curve, they're barely producing after 2-3 years.
Beyond this, we do have other forms of energy production. Solar and wind are effective. As currently implemented, we have a lot of problems (re: the grid, stupid placement etc.) but they're both eroi positive - especially if you put solar panels in the desert (eroi of 20, unbuffered) instead of on people's rooves to make them feel good. Nuclear has an eroi above 70, generally speaking, over 2x coal's.
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