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First time poster so i'm not very well versed in the formalities here just to let you guys know.
Will try to be as direct as possible.
Main statement, Im of the coviction that modern civilization is doomed to collapse. Because of energy constaints, namely the energy return on investment (EROI) of: peak oil and renewable energies. Further more the energy density of oil alternatives is not dense enough to accomodate the modern standard of living.
Here a couple pieces of information that support my viewpoint: Number 1: "EROI of different fuels and the implications for society (2014)" research paper by Charles A.S Hall and others. Number 2: The article "renewables-ko-by-eroi" on the website energytransition.org. Number 3: "Energy, EROI and quality of life (2014)" by Jessica G. Lambert and others.
A couple of assumtions i made are that high EROI is needed for modern living. In case of big EROI losses there will be a massive increase in civil unrest. There is enough coal in the ground to supply our energy needs. However this is not very applicable in cars nor is it good for the envirmoment, which in turn will cause civilisation collape in the longhaul.
Some previous discussion points:
Nuclear, Nuclear is very good on the small scale. However there is not enough uranium to support longterm global reliance on nuclear energy. If the entire world would switch to nuclear energy today, the known uranium supply will be depleted within 5 years. See the article: "Why nuclear power will never supply the world's energy need" on phys.org.
New Oil, while we are still finding new oil deposits, the discovery rate of the new oil depositst follows a downward trend. (the line has the same figure like a normal-distribution) Some pieces that support this statement, See 1: The USGS forecast. See 2: "Ecology in Times of Scarcity" by John W Day and others. See 3: the article "The Growing gap" on planetforlive.com. Also the new discoveries are very often in locations that are diffuclt to access. Think of very deep sea or antartica, et cetera. This ensures the Energy cost getting this oil will be high, so it is coupled with a high EROI.
It would be very nice to hear some counter viewpoints! Because looking at the future and seeking a bleak one is not nice.
If i forgot anything please let me know!
All the best,
William
I think your formalities look fine. I appreciate the clear thesis and the provision of sources. Thought I would have liked direct links to articles on sites like phys.org or energiewende. At least when using a phone, it is not easy to navigate their whole site.
Now, for the argument.
Dr. Hall suggests an EROI of 10-15 is needed for modern quality of life, but this hinges on assumptions about efficiency. Does adding healthcare really take us from 10:1 to 12:1? Does it have to, or can we reduce bloat without reducing quality of life?
I am not convinced that renewable EROI is so low. Estimating the EROI for any source is contentious, and I would like to see newer attempts. A casual search is dominated by articles following the Scientific American feature in 2013, and if the issue is significant, I’d expect it to have gotten more attention over time. The “renewables KO’d?” article specifically argues against a paper, claiming that it was biased by the nuclear lobby, and that European renewable EROI is higher than suggested.
Nuclear presents an interesting problem. While the current known deposits are limited, it is a problem of demand more than supply. As the usage of uranium increased, the amount of uranium which is worth exploiting would also increase. According to this site there is significant opportunity to expand production and find new deposits. New technology will also improve efficiency and longevity. Compare the incentives which drive our oil and gas production curves—they should all apply to uranium too.
In summary, I believe there is significant growth potential in a nuclear+renewable combination. Current EROI measures have large error bars and depend on assumptions about technology and society which may or may not hold. Each of these factors helps to mitigate the effect on civilization.
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