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Culture War Roundup for the week of April 3, 2023

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No candidate has greater potential to derail DeSantis than Trump. He clings onto the hardcore vote and takes them with him, sets fire to his opponents in the primaries, and renders them worse general candidates.

I hope Trump actually gets convicted, irrespective of the validity of his crimes, just to render him ineligible. Even if De Santis loses in the generals, seeing him as the opponent will force democrats to prefer a moderate candidate.

I hope Trump actually gets convicted, irrespective of the validity of his crimes, just to render him ineligible

What exactly are the eligibility criteria here? Wasn't there a guy running with a slogan "Prisoner 9653 For President"? Did they change the law since then? And if not, oh god, do you really want to hand a meme like that to Trump of all people?

There really is no winning with Trump.

Both Democrats and Republicans seem to be their own worst enemies this time around. Democrats can't figure out 1 decent candidate because of the infighting and senile old man. Trump out here making it impossible for a Republican politician to move on from MAGA while at the same time being unelectable.

without MAGA, there are no GOP victories

move on from MAGA to what? the GOP without MAGA is playing to a demographic which doesn't exist anymore and the reason the establishment GOP hates Trump and MAGA is because he embarrasses them to their country club PMCs that used to form the party structure

those people are either gone or now Democrats

Trump is the only candidate which has a chance to win a general because he's the only one with cross-party appeal who motivates low-likely voters to show up. Without him, the GOP loses badly. Donald Trump is the only get out the vote operation the GOP even has despite spending a billion dollars on a proprietary database which cannot even correctly flag people who are registered GOP who haven't voted yet.

without MAGA, there are no GOP victories

Are there with MAGA? After eking out a narrow victory against a historically unpopular candidate in 2016, Trumpism has mostly been getting its ass kicked electorally despite hefty structural advantages.

Yes, 2016, 2018, and 2020 were all better off with Trump rallying or on the ticket than if he wasn't with Trump running better than the GOP each time. Trump saved the Senate in 2018.

you didn't write any specifics to your comments so there is nothing really to respond to

As others have noted, almost any Republican would've won in 2016, and most probably would've won more convincingly.

Trump and Trumpist candidates have otherwise generally underperformed generic ballots and run behind less Trumpy candidates (most prominently: Trump losing both GA senate seats in 2020 and then doing it again two years later, even as Kemp cruised to re-election). The GOP would be vastly better served electorally tacking back towards the center, which would enable them to capitalize on many of the Dems' wackier social position. This would displease the more radical elements of their base, but they have little leverage beyond threatening to crash the party with no survivors (which, to be fair, they have so far used to some effect).

As others have noted, almost any Republican would've won in 2016, and most probably would've won more convincingly.

I've seen people here comment that without any actual argument let alone things to back that claim up. And whether they argue it or not, no they wouldn't because any other GOP wouldn't have driven the turnout in the midwest to beat the Clinton-Obama political machine. Absent those new voters, they lose. With generic GOP derp like they had in 2012 despite a lingering economic recession and wildly unpopular policies, they didn't.

Trump and Trumpist candidates have otherwise generally underperformed generic ballots and run behind less Trumpy candidates

of the hundreds, you may find some examples, but in general no they didn't

also, "generic ballots" are not real ballots in real outcomes

most prominently: Trump losing both GA senate seats in 2020 and then doing it again two years later, even as Kemp cruised to re-election

any person who claims David Perdue or Kelly Loeffler are "trump and trumpist candidates" isn't a person who knows what they're talking about

no

Loeffler and Perdue were endorsed by Trump and ran campaigns leaning heavily on their association with Trump. To say they were not Trumpist is just disowning failure. Which arguably gets to why Trumpists keep losing - they're unable to acknowledge failure and course correct (e.g. all the cope around 2020). If you want to talk about 'real outcomes' Trump's "wins" come in the form of cannibalizing other Republicans while costing the party critical senate seats (AZ, GA, MI, PA, CO... and his candidate also lost in Alaska, though that at least didn't cost the GOP a seat). Arguably also cost the GOP state legislatures in states like PA and MI. The biggest win of post-2020 GOP politics was Youngkin knocking off McAuliffe in VA and he very deliberately ran a campaign downplaying association with Trump and his followers.

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