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Indeed, China's been working land routes for energy, self-sufficiency and so on. It really depends how much energy they need. I imagine a lot of their industry would be shut down if they're at war with the US and allies, so there are savings there. 65% of their energy is used in industry. Whether many of those workers could switch to war work is another question, I doubt China could find ways to employ them all or resources to produce with them.
Between domestic production and Russia, they have enough oil for war use. It's an interesting question as to how much oil is needed for civilian uses in wartime though, or what level of mobilization they choose.
Citation needed.
Also, an energy blockade of China would be unlikely to just last for the duration of the war. The US proved with Cuba that it can impose sanctions for a long time if it doesn't get what it wants.
Finally, the Chinese government's legitimation heavily comes from its provision of prosperity in return for obedience. The younger generations in China have never known a recession or war. They rapidly forced the government's hand over comparatively undemanding covid policies. I doubt that Xi wants to test just how tough they are again.
Per day, China currently consumes 15M barrels of oil. It produces 4M domestically and can probably import 2M via relatively safe overland routes from Russia. It has at least 700M in state and private reserves. Under a blockade, most of its industry would be idle, and the government would institute rationing; call that a 40% cut in consumption. So it probably has around 350 days before it draws down the reserves. At that point, it would be forced to go from a 40% cut to a 60% cut, though probably it would dynamically adjust its rationing target up as the war dragged on. If China could end the war within a couple months (more pertinently, if it believed it could), it would believe it had secured enough oil to win.
Although China would undoubtedly be in really bad economic shape, so would the rest of the world, including the US and particularly its allies in the region. China is not Cuba, because a fifth of the economy was never reliant on Cuba. The question is which domestic political system would better be able to handle mass unemployment and economic depression. How many people in the US would be willing to sacrifice years of prosperity for Taiwan, especially if China was focused entirely on just controlling trade and not landing soldiers on the land or bombing cities?
I doubt a war would drag on for 350 days. If China learned anything from Russia's blunders in Ukraine then it's surely that it's a better bet to overcommit. While they are reliant on oil, the world is reliant on Chinese supply-chains. A blockade of China would instantly cause a catastrophic depression in the West and likely hyperinflation.
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A 40% cut in oil consumption is a pretty big ask for a country that didn't even have the state capacity for e.g. masking rules like Hong Kong's, and which folded at the first major sign of public anger over zero covid.
Remember the CCP's deal with the Chinese people: prosperity and a quiet life in return for compliance. The CCP is genuinely popular, in my experience, because of this deal. What happens if the CCP can't fill its part of that deal?
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China is the sixth biggest oil producer on the planet. Four million barrels per day. Plus they're friendly with Russia.
In any serious conflict, the missiles wouldn't just be limited to the Taiwan strait. China would likely take out all major US bases on day 1 of the conflict.
Does China have enough conventional ballistic missiles to do this? Destroying air bases is extremely hard, and attacking Japan is a huge escalation.
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This is just one side of the accounts.
China produces 10x as much oil as the US military was consuming at a period of high consumption, when they were occupying Iraq in addition to all their standard air and naval stuff! How could China possibly need more than 10 or 20% of their domestic fuel consumption for the military? They don't have to fight a campaign on the other side of the world either, there's no huge logistical issue costing them energy.
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