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Notes -
A curious question I was just thinking about that might be unanswerable due to the culture war effect:
Is there any hard data on what percentage of trans people "pass" as their new gender?
I feel inclined to think that the percentage is pretty low. But that may be mostly due to poorly passing trans people being more obvious, while the passing ones don't draw much notice. Most of the pictures of MtFs going around look pretty obviously like a dude in a dress. The FtMs tend to look kind of androgynous. But then you can't deny that Blair White and Buck Angel exist. And those are people who've chosen to be openly trans public figures. How many others are out there who you couldn't tell they weren't what they appeared to be, but don't care to advertise it for whatever reason? I honestly have no clue, and I'm wondering if anybody does.
I have to agree with "what is passing?". I personally differentiate between "picture passing", "video passing without voice" "video passing with voice (impossible)" and "real life passing". And it obviously depends on the person how much you notice. For some people, I even get the distinct impression that they don't want to notice. Especially with women you often hear them mentioning "that girl is weirding me out/making me feel uncomfortable" but are surprised when you point out it's an MtF. But they could also try to avoid accusations of bigotry, which is probably smart I guess.
Picture passing is relatively easy. You have to put in a little work to choose a specific angle and a grainy theme/style and try around, but it isn't even a large time investment. This is the great majority of allegedly passing MtFs.
Video passing is considerably harder. Gait and mannerisms are quite strongly biologically primed and often need to be deliberately re-learned. It's harder to rely on specific angles. But for a dedicated person it is doable. This is most FtMs and a few MtF celebrities that are specifically known for how passing they are.
I already half-jokingly added (impossible) to passing with voice. It may not be literally impossible, but in general MtFs voices are just to hoarse for a cis woman and FtMs are too squeaky. Very specific and recognisable once you've heard it a few times.
With real life passing I mean that you directly talk and interact with a person; If you only see them from a distance and don't talk with them, passing is kinda equivalent to video passing. Seeing a person up close and talking with them just exacerbates all queues. Even if you don't consciously notice it, MtFs tend to really weird you out and make you feel uncomfortable IRL. They tend to stand a little too close, their bigger and broader build is more noticeable in person, etc. . FtMs on the other hand are much better at passing IRL. I think it's because our threat assessment doesn't kick in with them, they're just kind of tiny and squeaky. But in general even they are implausibly small, implausibly delicate, etc. for a cis man and become much more noticeable once you're aware of these differences.
Also, Buck Angel: He totally isn't all that passing. Super small, very squeaky voice, actually quite feminine personality. Blair White I haven't heard or seen yet so don't know, but none of the "passing" trans MtFs celebrity are really all that convincing once you've seen more than pictures or short videos.
And as a last aside, extremely early HRT a la Jazz Jennings might change things, but it is still quite rare.
All interesting points. It may be culturally impossible, but I think it'd be interesting to see someone make all those levels as formal definitions and do an actual experiment somehow on what percentage meets each one.
I haven't spent a ton of time around trans people in person. The ones I have seen have been pretty obvious, though I can't be sure there are others I haven't noticed.
Funny you should say - Buck Angel was the first thing that came to mind as the best-passing FtM I was aware of. But when I found his (?) Instagram, I actually noticed that most of the pictures were pretty close-up and didn't show much but face and some upper body. And in several of the ones that were further out and showed full body, the pose just looked kind of feminine somehow. And if I listen to a video, the voice sounds kind of feminine too. I watched a few minutes of video of Blair White too, and haven't gotten quite the same sense. She (?) seems maybe a bit more masculine than I'd expect, but that seems to be a bit more accepted in women and somewhat more common in women who do things like become a full-time podcaster/influencer about politics.
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