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So the state department is wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time, nor will it be the last.
I have a hard time buying that our Atlanticist side of things is getting anything of value out of this war. The only thing we can really do at this point is act tough and hope the Ukrainians can hold out long enough to make the Russians stop where they are. I don’t see (at least without NATO boots on the ground) Ukraine actually retaking either Donbas or Crimea. So the best case is a stalemate that requires us to spend vast amounts of our own treasure to maintain. And again, this is a fight for basically a rural farming country with a good sized corruption problem. They’re in it now because they can’t afford to lose face and show the world how weak we actually are. But at the same time, we cannot infinitely send billions a month in aid. It just doesn’t work because eventually we run out of money (or print ourselves into hyperinflation) and public patience probably isn’t going to last that long (I think we can probably only keep going for another year or two).
Worse, doing so now reduces those capabilities to use them later. Ukraine isn’t a prize on the global stage. Taiwan is. But after billions in aid to Ukraine, and our depleted weapons stocks and a public not interested in yet another military adventure to a place they don’t care about, they aren’t going to be able to do the same thing again. Which means that China gets a very valuable piece of industrial infrastructure, the entire computer chip industry, and all of the leverage that comes with it. We’re basically, without thinking it through deciding to fight tooth and nail for Nebraska and ceding New York. Any sober analysis would consider that colossally stupid.
Depleted weapons stocks go both ways. China has reduced capacity to invade Taiwan because they won't be able to count on Russian military aid. The same goes for China's other allies (North Korea, Iran) because their stockpiles are also being tapped by the Russian war effort.
I find this "give up Ukraine to secure Taiwan" sentiment unconvincing. Had the West floundered on Ukraine, China would likely have launched their invasion of Taiwan months ago.
I don't even get the "depleted weapons stocks" thing, really. The memes about the Military-Industrial Complex have me under the impression that they won't stay depleted for long. If firearms history is any suggestion (WRT when a big army has to shuffle off and surplus old shit), the MIC is about to have one hell of a good problem to have on their hands.
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