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PaperclipPerfector  11mo ago (text post)   30989 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023

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We have very large solid blue areas with not one Republican vote. We have no such large solid red areas.

Really? You think there is not a single Republican voter in Portland or San Francisco?

When polls indicate the population at large is pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, it's impossible for Democrats to simultaneously have all blue areas locked down while no red areas are.

The Democrats are winning, and they're doing it largely because most of their base believes one Simply Does Not Vote Republican, so the former pattern of becoming more conservative as one ages (or at least staying still as the Democrats move left) no longer holds. Trump did manage to switch a bloc of Democrats (not as individuals, but as a group), but it appears that was the last one.

So I know that one of your ongoing themes is that the game is rigged, leftists have already won, and they're going to stomp on your face forever.

If Trump wins again (an event I consider unlikely but not impossible at this point), will that update your priors?

Really? You think there is not a single Republican voter in Portland or San Francisco?

Not that large an area, but precincts and groups of precincts with more people than your average rural county.

When polls indicate the population at large is pretty evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, it's impossible for Democrats to simultaneously have all blue areas locked down while no red areas are.

Mathematically, this just means your mixed areas lean Republican enough to balance out the walls of blue. There's nothing contradictory about it.

If Trump wins again (an event I consider unlikely but not impossible at this point), will that update your priors?

If Biden wins again (or his (D) replacement in 2024 in the event he is replaced), will that update yours?

Mathematically, this just means your mixed areas lean Republican enough to balance out the walls of blue. There's nothing contradictory about it.

So Democrats have managed to strategically place themselves so that they have a lock on large swaths of blue areas and can still flip red areas, everywhere? No, that math does not work out.

If Biden wins again (or his (D) replacement in 2024 in the event he is replaced), will that update yours?

Do you mean my priors that Democrats haven't achieved One Party status and will not win forever and ever? No, Biden winning again would not convince me I'm wrong about that. Will Trump winning convince you that you are?

Do you mean my priors that Democrats haven't achieved One Party status and will not win forever and ever? No, Biden winning again would not convince me I'm wrong about that.

Then you have no intellectual skin in the game; you are asking me to commit to abandon my position while making no commitment to accept it.

Then you have no intellectual skin in the game; you are asking me to commit to abandon my position while making no commitment to accept it.

Your proposition is ridiculous. You're making a claim that Democrats will win forever. I am saying no they won't. You are asking me if I will be convinced that Democrats will win forever if they win next time. I say no. I asked you if you will be convinced Democrats will not win forever if they don't win next time. Crickets.

I'm sure you can see the logical difference in these propositions, eve if you will not acknowledge them.

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