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Notes -
2023 World Science Fiction Convention is scheduled to happen in Chengdu, China - as I understand the first in-person Worldcon since the pandemic. The reason why it's in CW topic is because one of the guests of honor is Sergey Lukianenko, who, besides being a mid-grade SciFi writer (his early works are decent, his late stuff is IMO garbage), is an active supporter and propagandist for the Russian war in Ukraine, hating Ukraine so much that he prohibited translating his books into Ukrainian (I am sure Ukrainian-speaking culture is doomed now). If one needs somebody to embody a militant Ukraine hater, who denies the nation's right to exist, claims the whole national claim is fake, the language is broken Russian, Ukrainian government are Nazis, puppeteered by the West, the whole nine yards - he's the man.
Predictably, this did not sit well with everybody. Somebody, representing "Polish fandom", even started a petition to rescind the invitation. However, given as it is unlikely the Chinese organizers didn't know who Lukianenko is and what his views - which he is actively and loudly voicing - are, and general stance of China towards Russia, I do not think anything would happen.
I wonder how would this play out. I used to hold Hugo's in high regard a while ago, but given the wokeisation and politization of everything lately, I don't really care anymore. But I heard WSFS are pretty woke, and so I wonder how it would sit with some of them to appear on the same scene with an actual fascist for once. I am not sure what is the function of the "guest of honor", but obviously the distinguished position alone, in any other setting, for an US person of similar views, would trigger them immediately. And, for various reasons, being Ukraine-friendly is in fashion with the wokes for now. But, the wokes appear to be very deferential to China in general, and maybe they could just pretend nothing is happening. After all, Disney literally filmed a movie with the concentration camps as the background, and everybody pretty much just shrugged. The various Puppies have also a chance to point at this as an exposure of the hypocrisy of the wokes (as if we were short of examples otherwise?) - would they use it?
The other guests of honor are Cixin Liu (who earned the honor, I think, and being Chinese, probably is appropriate figure to appear in this position) and Robert J. Sawyer, a Canadian writer of whom I know virtually nothing, except watching Flashforward (did not read, but liked the idea), and praise by Orson Scott Card, which I value very highly (so maybe I should check more into him?). I wonder if he has had any thoughts on the matter either?
Eh, I think woke support for China tends to be overestimated, especially in right-leaning circles. There are some groups in the woke coalition that take its side for tactical reasons - big business that economically depends on them, and various groups that might at times find that they have a positive edge connecting them in the affect-loading graph (Asian-Americans, staunch technocrats) - and a brief strong enemy-of-my-enemy reflex when the Trump presidency brought some fanatical China haters to the forefront of their outgroup, but otherwise I think they have little love left for them. If China/Taiwan comes to head, I would suspect US alignment chips to fall similarly to Ukraine, with strong bi-partisan support for Taiwan and any insufficiently enthusiastic (or downright pro-China) being overwhelmingly branded right-wing.
Tactically, yes, that's probably what would happen. But culturally, I don't see any mainstream opposition to China or pushback against its obviously fascist nature anywhere in woke cultural spaces. Say "Israel", and you'd get a multi-hour tantrum about apartheid and so on. Say "Russia", and you know. Say "China" and... pretty much nothing? There were some "Free Tibet" groups on the fringe, but I don't think they are taken more seriously than PETA trying to convince us drinking milk is racist. That's one of the reasons why Trump could use China as a wedge issue - because the Left's stance towards China is submissive, and his criticism highlighting it works.
I'd say it's a multitude of factors playing together.
The debates surrounding Israel and American policy in the Middle East in general has been red hot since 9/11 and the Iraq War. The nuclear holocaust scare that came with the Cold War mentality against Russia never really went away and if anything, has just taken an adrenaline shot in the last year. China is a relatively new "threat" in comparison. Whereas a full generation of American thinkers cut their teeth on Russia/MENA.
The US has been the uncontested superpower between 1990-2010, as a result a lot of American foreign policy thinkers believe there will always be enough resources to do anything, anytime, anywhere.
Lots more big and rich allies are in Europe, so European concerns will trump Asian ones. How many "true" Asian allies in the most traditional sense, let alone allies (as in, not including "major partners" like India) to whom China is the number 1 security threat, besides Japan and SK? The "pivot" to Asia is just not happening soon enough.
And yes, China has historically bided its time, got in bed with American elites and kept their purses protruding. It's deeply integrated with Wall Street and Hollywood and makes American supply chains dependent on it. How many films have you seen of suave American action stars taking on the robotic, reticent KGB agent as opposed to a Chinese one? Hell do most Americans even know what the Chinese intelligence agency is called?
You also require a lot more creativity and deep policy reforms to meaningfully counter China, Russia is much smaller and therefore easier to pick on in comparison. Just keep doing what you do now and Russia will eventually bleed.
America is divided. The Great American Culture War is it's biggest novel cultural export. It's very difficult to spend time on social media without seeing something about an American culture war issue one way or the other. Various political tribes hate one another far more than they hate any external foe. Recall how to a lot of American progressives, the notion that Trump, their number 1 enemy, could be a "Russian plant" is a strong unifier against Russia. That's right, a fellow American, a former POTUS no less, can radicalise an entire party and its voters against Russia. And even now, some Republicans do believe that Russia "rightfully" belongs in the western bloc. The China scare just couldn't unite the culture war factions.
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