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Remember the big energy crisis that Europe was supposed to be doomed with for years to come? Yeah, it's pretty much gone. Worth pointing out two things.
First, natural gas demand has been much weaker than anticipated since China is weaker. Indeed, there is now a surplus of gas in the world market.Some people claim that "last winter we got lucky", but this doesn't explain how gas storage is at historically high levels. Germany, Europe's biggest gas consumer, has an excellent position going into the autumn.
Second, renewable energy is beating new records by the day. In Northern Europe, electricity prices are bouncing around zero and occasionally dipping below the line into negative territory.There's also a structural trend of rapidly growing renewable energy, which means that even as gas prices return to historical norms, it is unlikely that consumption will stay the same. The shift now underway to renewable and clean energy (e.g. nuclear) is permanent. Russia had its chance at energy blackmail and it turned out it was a dud.
I think there are a couple of conclusions to draw from this. The most important one is that scaremongering and hysteria rarely pays to listen to. We can broaden this to a discussion about climate change or even immigration. Sure, there will be issues, but the doomsters on both issues were proven wrong historically. So were the doomsters on Europe's supposedly "permanent energy crisis" thesis.Then why do people persist by wallowing in fear? I don't have a clear answer but perhaps there are evolutionary adaptions that were beneficial to those who were erring on the side of caution?
Another important takeaway for me is once a crisis gets going you should never underestimate humanity's capacity for adaption and change. The system we inhabit may look brittle, but it's probably a lot more sturdy than we give it credit for. Some of us still remember the panicked predictions about the food supply chains breaking down when Covid hit, and plenty people stocked up on tons of canned food, often for no good reason. Some even talked of famine.
Perhaps being the optimist just isn't socially profitable. You're taken more seriously by being a "deeply concerned" pessimist. If this is true, then social incentives will be skewed to having the bad take. People who will be aware of this will probably draw the right conclusions in times when most other folks are losing their minds in fear.
On what do you base this? Gini index seems fine.
Germany's wealth inequality, as opposed to income inequality, is very high.
One thing I've heard about Germany and the Netherlands is that the extractive taxation and regulation makes it very difficult for a middle class person to get rich. So the wealthy are composed of heirs. (Although, to be fair, this doesn't explain why French wealth inequality appears to be low).
If we were to measure generational wealth inequality I'm certain that Germany would look awful compared to more dynamic countries like the U.S. where it's quite easy for a normal person to become moderately wealthy.
France created a parallel bureaucratic elite of people who don't make a lot of money but who have a huge amount of 'status' in French society (and who monopolize places on the prep school - grandes ecoles - senior bureaucrat pipeline (funded by the state)). They might not technically be 'rich', but pure wealth in France means less than it does in the Anglosphere. Everything runs on patronage, money is often less important than power, things like the Academie Francaise and certain senior intellectual positions are arguably more coveted than senior jobs in finance or in the management of large corporations. It's the last Western culture that has preserved a major tradition of 'public intellectuals' with actual influence.
Interesting. Might we assume that these positions also come with large apartments in central Paris, personal drivers, and other things that are not counted as "wealth" but act in similar ways? I think I remember hearing about Jacques Chirac hosting over-the-top culinary events at taxpayer expense. But I'm not sure that kind of largess would extend to mere academics and functionaries.
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