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Notes -
Who do you guys think blew up the dam?
Russia pros
makes the area downriver nearly impassable in the short term, with the counter offensive kicking off kills that front.
could make crossing even upriver more difficult with much more mud to cross for a landing? This would allow them to concentrate forces on the donetsk / zaparozhne lines
Russia cons
humanitarian disaster and large escalation. Would make western populations more willing to keep writing the blank checks for the MIC
could threaten the nuclear plant within their own territory (this seems like a con for anyone in the region, Russian or Ukrainian though)
most models show more damage to the left bank of the Dnieper which they control and have fortified after the Kherson withdrawal.
cuts off a large supply of water to Crimea
Ukraine pros
Escalation, assuming a successful false flag would allow them to push for more western military aide. Ukraine's war is less against Russia and more against the minds of western populations as their continued support with elections upcoming is all that is keeping them afloat.
Long term (weeks to months for the banks to dry) easier to cross upriver to regain the nuclear plant.
potentially wipe out Russian minefields, troops and fortifications located downstream.
Ukraine cons
freezes the entire Kherson front right as the counter offensive seems to be kicking off.
damages their own territory, humanitarian disaster, threatens nuclear plant.
Edgecases:
God is laughing his ass off, Historic high levels and lack of maintenance due to war lead to failure of the dam on accident right as a major offensive is about to start and major escalations (attacks on civilians in Russian territory etc.) had just begun.
Some crazy high quality deep fakes? I guess it could lead to chaos and unbalance things downriver? Throw one side off? Would think they'd have better information sources for either side than twitter posts though.
"Shitty Soviet infrastructure crumbles under questionable operating conditions" has a certain Cold War schadenfreude to it -- I don't really see a major cost/benefit balance to it for either side, so "master plan" theories seem unlikely to pan out either way.
tldr; "Shit's fucked, yo"
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