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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023

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Nobody seems to talk about the RU-UA war here anymore. I guess it's because we're saturated with it everywhere else.

Yet given that Ukraine has launched what is unquestionably the largest offensive since the Kharkov surge in late September when it took back wide swathes of territory, I believe a status update is warranted.

First, it is immediately clear that the Russians are much more prepared this time. The area that Ukraine took back in autumn was barely defended by a rag-tag group of volunteer militias. That was a big lapse by the Russian general command, which also led to the big mobilisation drive. This time is different.

Even pro-UA accounts like Julian Röpcke are conceding that Ukraine is losing lots of armored vehicles with very marginal gains. Western officials like the CIA chief or the US foreign secretary have all pointed out that the aftermath of the offensive will shape upcoming negotiations. Given that Ukraine has little to show for their offensive thus far, this inevitably casts a dark shadow on any prospects for large territorial compromises. Why would the Russians give the Ukrainians something at the negotiating table which they cannot gain on the battlefield?

To my mind, the best that Ukraine can hope for now is a stalemate. This war has shown that in the era of ubiquitous ISR capabilities, trying to surprise your enemy is much harder if he's on his toes (which the Russians weren't in the autumn, but they are now). Consequently, offensives are simply far costlier and harder. The Russians had the same problems, which is why capturing Bakhmut took such an absurdly long time.

For those of us who would want to see a negotiated settlement, the reality is that neither side is running out of money or arms. Russia is spending a moderate amount of money and the West can keep supplying Ukraine enough to keep going for years if the decision is made that defensive action is the way to go. The only way this war ends is if the West tells Ukraine to give in and accept large territorial losses in return for a settlement and possibly security guarantees. Such an outcome would be nearly impossible to sell to Ukraine's domestic public and would almost certainly end the career of whoever was leading the country, including Zelensky. Whatever comes out of this war, I'm not optimistic about Ukraine's long-term prospects.

I don't feel like it's possible to obtain a good understanding of the situation from OSINT sources. Therefore my stance has been, and remains, that Russia started a war of expansion, but was egged on to it by western provocations and/or stupidity. No one looks good here.

I agree wholeheartedly. Except that I don't believe it was meant to be a war of expansion but simply an instigation to a coup to install a pre-2014 style government to Ukraine and stop Ukrainian attacks on Donbas from being a headache on the Russian government who couldn't care less about the Donbas population but cannot let them get crushed either. Since then they are improvising rather poorly and had to annex the occupied territories as a sign of commitment.

You are perhaps correct, I do not want to claim to have a real good understanding of the situation.