This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Transnational Thursdays 4
Thanks to @ActuallyATleilaxuGhola for the name. As before, all folks are encouraged to add to any of these or to add coverage of any countries they’re interested in, the more the merrier.
Argentina
Despite recent polls showing the libertarian Javier Millei in a three way tie with mainstream parties for the presidential election, 60% of voters oppose his proposal of dollarization and no candidate of his scored above 15% in the provincial elections. Juntos por el Cambio, the Center Right opposition party, scored big in the long time Peronist stronghold of San Luis and otherwise the mainstream parties consolidated their holds on the provinces they already governed. They are supposed to formally announce coalitions this morning so I may edit that in later.
The government has announced another debt swap as part of their ongoing effort to restructure debt obligations. Inflation continues to climb at breakneck speeds from 100% a few weeks ago to 149% this week.
Colombia
President Gustavo Petro has successfully negotiated a six month cease fire with the rebel group ELN*, starting in August. This is a major victory for internal stability and fulfills one of Petro’s central campaign promises. Unfortunately he doesn’t have much time to celebrate as the conservative Attorney General continues his investigations into corruption in the Petro’s Administration, this time looking into alleged illegal campaign financing.
Guatemala
Guatemala’s high profile persecution of a journalist critical of the regime has ended in a widely criticized sentence of six years. Elections are Sunday the 25th (though they will likely go to a runoff in August). After banning the three most popular anti-establishment candidates, the remaining candidates are all different flavors of establishment, frequently literally the children of previous Presidents. Most noticeable is Zury Ríos, daughter of former dictator Efraín Ríos Montt, famous for his (US backed) genocide of the indigenous Mayans. Ríos is a controversial figure for her defense of her father, and has run twice before and never finished better than third. However, she is currently the front runner (following Carlos Pineda being banned), running on a campaign of imitating Salvadoran President Bukele’s security approach for the gangs in Guatemala. She is trailed by Sandra Torres of the Social-Democrat party, former First Lady and runner up in the previous two elections, possibly headed for a third.
Turkey
JP Morgan estimates that Erdogan will kick off his new term by finally raising interest rates possibly up 25%. They predict a recession in the short term, but hopefully the pain needn’t be long if they can restore the confidence of international investors. Foreign Policy expects his new term to be defined by a continually assertive foreign policy, especially as a broker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and now the Balkans as well. NATO continues to largely be at Turkey’s whims with regards to Sweden’s accession.
Iran
Three months after the Saudi-Iran Peace Accords, Iran has yet to deescalate on any front. The war in Yemen rages on, Iranians have repeatedly targeted Americans in Syria, interfered with sea trade (1,2), and continued to direct their proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine to shell Israel. The Biden Administration, long having given up on resurrecting a nuclear deal and unwilling to go full force against Iran, has listed towards steady de-escalation, foregoing retaliation against Iran for its attacks or build up of uranium reserves, and allowing it to skirt some sanctions and access previously frozen funds.
India
45,000 people have been evacuated from India’s Gujarat State (and 60,000 from neighboring Pakistan’s Sindh Province) in anticipation of Thursday’s Biparjoy Cyclone. Ethnic violence in BJP dominated Manipur State has reached highly serious levels: “More than 130 people have died in the state, and another 60,000 displaced from their homes. People have ransacked 4,573 weapons from police armories and destroyed 250 churches. So grave is the situation that many residents have chosen to escape to neighboring Myanmar, where the ruling military junta is conducting aerial bombing campaigns against its own citizens.” @self_made_human any details to add?
Eritrea
Eritrea is pretty much never in the news because of its extreme political isolation under the thirty year dictatorship of Isiais Afwerki, who looks like your friendly neighbor over the fence but who actually turned Eritrea into one of the least free countries in the world, frequently coming in dead last for freedom of press and recently hitting a three way tie with North Korea and Mauritania for prevalence of slavery. However, after sixteen years of absence, Eritrea has decided to rejoin the East African regional block, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development. This will restore trade ties as well as security collaboration channels.
Sudan
The latest 24 hour ceasefire ended and violence began again immediately, with fighting increasingly growing more in the RSF home base of Darfur. “More than 1.6 million people to leave their homes for safer areas inside Sudan, according to the International Organization for Migration. About 530,000 others fled to the neighboring countries of Egypt, South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, and Libya.”
Nigeria
Nigeria’s Progressive new leader Bola Tinubu officially took the Presidency two weeks ago and started things off with a bang by ending a fuel subsidy that strained Nigeria’s finances. This caused fuel prices to immediately spike, sending off significant unrest throughout the country. Bloomberg reports that an internal government committee has recommended Nigeria continue to sell off its state assets in oil, killing two birds with one stone by raising finances and boosting efficiency in the petroleum sector, thus ideally helping to fulfill Tinubu’s ambitious campaign pledge to triple oil production.
Tinubu has also suspended and has now arrested the head of the Central Bank Godwin Emefiele. The charges are vague and based around economic mismanagement, specifically around a controversial policy that caused a currency shortage. However, it’s worth noting Emefiele was Tinubu’s opponent in his party’s primary so is something of a political rival.
Jihadist attacks have spiked recently as well, which does not bode well for Tinubu’s campaign promise to restore peace. However, the new National Assembly has now been sworn in with Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress party holding majorities in both chambers, so he can begin to appoint a cabinet and make use of his mandate to address the twin maladies of the economy and terrorism.
I'm really not the right guy for in-depth political analysis in India, but in the absence of anyone better I'll step up to the plate:
NE India is largely divorced from the rest of the country, by geography and ethnicity to boot. The majority of the tribes that live in those parts resemble the denizens of Myanmar, Tibet or Nepal more than other parts of India, but even that's belying the ethnolinguistic diversity lurking there. The tribes have their own concerns, with them often being at each others throats over historical grievances, religion, or an effort to get gibs.
In this case, it's the latter, one of the Hindu tribes once successfully lobbied to be granted privileged status affirmative action-wise, causing an uproar in their Christian counterparts, who are afraid of being squeezed out, or more cynically, just as eager to get their stamp of disprivilege and run with it. After all, the coveted Scheduled Tribe status comes with economic and political benefits, and everyone wants a piece.
The extremely hilly terrain means that regional powers dominate the region more than the central government would like, especially given many decades of Maoist insurgency that only relatively recently calmed down. The border with Myanmar is porous, although the majority of Rohingya ended up in Bangladesh instead of NE India, that's still a major point of contention today.
So one tribe is taking the fuck you, got mine approach, and the other wants to join in the fun, prompting violence and rioting. The Indian government loves to cut off Internet access if someone looks at them funny, so there's an information blackout in those parts.
Frankly, most of India doesn't give a shit, violence there is unlikely to percolate to the rest of the country. None of the parties are particularly sympathetic, this is textbook sectarian strife in the arsehole of India, we've seen worse and will likely see more of the same for a while now.
Nah that was great, much appreciated.
I've heard now several times that the Kuki are nearly the same ethnic group as Myanmar's Chin. Do you know if there any recedivism or recruitment between the Chin National Army and their Indian counterparts or do they mostly see each other as unrelated peoples?
There seem to be quite a few potentially relevant articles that come up when you search Google Scholar for kuki chin insurgency.
Interesting, looks like it's an insurgent group in Bangladesh that has definitely received weapons from the Kachin rebels and possibly the Karen, but I can't figure out if they've worked with the Chin National Army. It does seem like they've hid and trained in the Kuki-dominant Indian state of Mizoram and that's also where a lot of them have fled to from the violence. Mizoram itself had a strong secessionist movement for a long time but signed a peace treat with India in '86.
I know very little about this specific issue, but I do know that insurgencies often do tend to spread across borders
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I don't have the faintest idea! It's simply not something I ever looked into, but if I had to bet, I'd bet against it simply because the actual ongoing rebellion in Myanmar hasn't spilled into India barring the refugee crisis. I'd hope that if large amounts of men and materiel were becoming involved in the war, that I'd have heard something about it, but that's weak evidence at best.
To give you an idea of how little thought anyone gives the place, imagine suddenly accosting a random American Mottizen and wanting to know the minute details of the geopolitics in Puerto Rico.
I doubt any of the other Indians here I know are better prepared to answer that, and there's nothing on that particular topic I could tell you that wouldn't involve me googling the same things you would haha.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link