This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Transnational Thursdays 4
Thanks to @ActuallyATleilaxuGhola for the name. As before, all folks are encouraged to add to any of these or to add coverage of any countries they’re interested in, the more the merrier.
Argentina
Despite recent polls showing the libertarian Javier Millei in a three way tie with mainstream parties for the presidential election, 60% of voters oppose his proposal of dollarization and no candidate of his scored above 15% in the provincial elections. Juntos por el Cambio, the Center Right opposition party, scored big in the long time Peronist stronghold of San Luis and otherwise the mainstream parties consolidated their holds on the provinces they already governed. They are supposed to formally announce coalitions this morning so I may edit that in later.
The government has announced another debt swap as part of their ongoing effort to restructure debt obligations. Inflation continues to climb at breakneck speeds from 100% a few weeks ago to 149% this week.
Colombia
President Gustavo Petro has successfully negotiated a six month cease fire with the rebel group ELN*, starting in August. This is a major victory for internal stability and fulfills one of Petro’s central campaign promises. Unfortunately he doesn’t have much time to celebrate as the conservative Attorney General continues his investigations into corruption in the Petro’s Administration, this time looking into alleged illegal campaign financing.
Guatemala
Guatemala’s high profile persecution of a journalist critical of the regime has ended in a widely criticized sentence of six years. Elections are Sunday the 25th (though they will likely go to a runoff in August). After banning the three most popular anti-establishment candidates, the remaining candidates are all different flavors of establishment, frequently literally the children of previous Presidents. Most noticeable is Zury Ríos, daughter of former dictator Efraín Ríos Montt, famous for his (US backed) genocide of the indigenous Mayans. Ríos is a controversial figure for her defense of her father, and has run twice before and never finished better than third. However, she is currently the front runner (following Carlos Pineda being banned), running on a campaign of imitating Salvadoran President Bukele’s security approach for the gangs in Guatemala. She is trailed by Sandra Torres of the Social-Democrat party, former First Lady and runner up in the previous two elections, possibly headed for a third.
Turkey
JP Morgan estimates that Erdogan will kick off his new term by finally raising interest rates possibly up 25%. They predict a recession in the short term, but hopefully the pain needn’t be long if they can restore the confidence of international investors. Foreign Policy expects his new term to be defined by a continually assertive foreign policy, especially as a broker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and now the Balkans as well. NATO continues to largely be at Turkey’s whims with regards to Sweden’s accession.
Iran
Three months after the Saudi-Iran Peace Accords, Iran has yet to deescalate on any front. The war in Yemen rages on, Iranians have repeatedly targeted Americans in Syria, interfered with sea trade (1,2), and continued to direct their proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine to shell Israel. The Biden Administration, long having given up on resurrecting a nuclear deal and unwilling to go full force against Iran, has listed towards steady de-escalation, foregoing retaliation against Iran for its attacks or build up of uranium reserves, and allowing it to skirt some sanctions and access previously frozen funds.
India
45,000 people have been evacuated from India’s Gujarat State (and 60,000 from neighboring Pakistan’s Sindh Province) in anticipation of Thursday’s Biparjoy Cyclone. Ethnic violence in BJP dominated Manipur State has reached highly serious levels: “More than 130 people have died in the state, and another 60,000 displaced from their homes. People have ransacked 4,573 weapons from police armories and destroyed 250 churches. So grave is the situation that many residents have chosen to escape to neighboring Myanmar, where the ruling military junta is conducting aerial bombing campaigns against its own citizens.” @self_made_human any details to add?
Eritrea
Eritrea is pretty much never in the news because of its extreme political isolation under the thirty year dictatorship of Isiais Afwerki, who looks like your friendly neighbor over the fence but who actually turned Eritrea into one of the least free countries in the world, frequently coming in dead last for freedom of press and recently hitting a three way tie with North Korea and Mauritania for prevalence of slavery. However, after sixteen years of absence, Eritrea has decided to rejoin the East African regional block, Inter-Governmental Authority on Development. This will restore trade ties as well as security collaboration channels.
Sudan
The latest 24 hour ceasefire ended and violence began again immediately, with fighting increasingly growing more in the RSF home base of Darfur. “More than 1.6 million people to leave their homes for safer areas inside Sudan, according to the International Organization for Migration. About 530,000 others fled to the neighboring countries of Egypt, South Sudan, Chad, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, and Libya.”
Nigeria
Nigeria’s Progressive new leader Bola Tinubu officially took the Presidency two weeks ago and started things off with a bang by ending a fuel subsidy that strained Nigeria’s finances. This caused fuel prices to immediately spike, sending off significant unrest throughout the country. Bloomberg reports that an internal government committee has recommended Nigeria continue to sell off its state assets in oil, killing two birds with one stone by raising finances and boosting efficiency in the petroleum sector, thus ideally helping to fulfill Tinubu’s ambitious campaign pledge to triple oil production.
Tinubu has also suspended and has now arrested the head of the Central Bank Godwin Emefiele. The charges are vague and based around economic mismanagement, specifically around a controversial policy that caused a currency shortage. However, it’s worth noting Emefiele was Tinubu’s opponent in his party’s primary so is something of a political rival.
Jihadist attacks have spiked recently as well, which does not bode well for Tinubu’s campaign promise to restore peace. However, the new National Assembly has now been sworn in with Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress party holding majorities in both chambers, so he can begin to appoint a cabinet and make use of his mandate to address the twin maladies of the economy and terrorism.
Dollarization is usually a bad (long term) solution to a currency crisis, but in Argentina’s case is likely worth it, simply as a way to force powerful provincial governments into restraining spending.
I think it could have been a good idea if they had done it a long time ago, or maybe just stuck through with convertibility. As is even Millei thinks they’d have to liquidate 100% of reserves to pull it off, and everyone else seems to think even that wouldn’t be enough.
That’s a problem, but a bigger problem is that the current situation serves a lot of Argentinian elites just fine (it’s not like they - or anyone - have their savings in pesos, which is part of the problem), so there’s little impetus for change, ever.
Not sure where these stats are from, but if the real figures are similar, the reality (as with much of South America) is that the rich have it too good to upend the system.
Those are pretty bonkers levels of inequality, but I think it sort of drives from the opposite direction given the polls showing 60% of people opposing dollarization. The elites could weather a major change well enough, but they probably won’t dollarize precisely because the cash-strapped public doesn’t want their pensions going up in smoke
I also wouldn’t rule out reforms from the top, though they probably won’t be that dramatic. The previous Administration did some pretty wide ranging (if poorly implemented) reforms and I’d guess they’re going to win this election too.
What do you mean by this?
I tried to access the Bloomberg link that mentions the poll (with 12ft.io too) but no luck.
I'd guess only a small percentage of the population would oppose the dollarization due to fear whilst saving money in that currency.
Interestingly, the article you linked about sterilization is written by Cachanosky one of the authors of the now main plan of dollarization for Milei to implement, if elected.
The rosiest perspective on dollarization is Millei’s and he thinks it would take 100% of reserves to buy up all the pesos in circulation. Everyone else seems to think Argentina’s reserves are less than the monetary base which if they can't secure a huge loan could force a pretty severe devaluation and wipe out savings.
Additionally, Argentina pays for their deficits by printing money and would lose the ability to do that after dollarization, so they'd assuredly have to cut public spending. The current Minister of Economy promised to stop doing this over a year ago but certainly has not. Social Security expenditures are close to half of their spending (including pensions and unemployment insurance) and is supposed to be funded by the Sustainability Guarantee Fund, but in 2008 the government nationalized the fund and started using it as a patronage vehicle: "President Cristina Fernandez’s government has used ANSES [State Pension Agency] to fund everything from laptops for schoolchildren to the Treasury itself after she nationalized the pension system....By relying on the ANSES, the government has been able to keep spending on politically popular but costly programs."
After a decade and a half of diverting funds to low-return government securities and subsidized infrastructure projects the SGF is now thoroughly depleted and ranked 3rd from the bottom of 44 countries in the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index, leaving pension funding leaning heavily on monetary financing and likely first on the chopping block if they lose this ability. Long term it's assuredly better to restrain monetary financing but short term it would be pretty painful.
The article is mostly about dollarization itself, there isn’t a ton more detail about the polling beyond the headline:
Zuban Córdoba y Asociados say the results are a preview from a national household survey, so no clue about the methods or anything.
Good catch
More options
Context Copy link
Argentina has insane dollar savings rates. Half the middle class has $100k+ in cash sitting around somewhere. That makes the case for dollarization perhaps uniquely interesting vs other attempts to do it in Cambodia, Zimbabwe etc.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link