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Falling in line with miras_chinotto that I've got little beyond speculation. I'd register another avenue of possibility that it could be a trojan horse-like situation. What better way to send an army into a formerly Russian territory than with the warm welcome of said countries president under the guise of refuge status. Clearly, and perhaps much too conspiratorially, Wagner "pisses off" Putin, is invited to refuge in Belarus, and suddenly Lukashenko finds himself with a dangerous and loyal (to putin) military force of 20,000 inside his gates. Simple bait and switch and now putin is simultaneously occupying two former territories. More to come?
What would be indicators of this? Perhaps Prigozhin resting in Minsk? or more likely a decrease in dollarization, and re-uptake of the ruble in the region.
With Lukashenko apparently indebted to Putin, I would wonder if the populace would even necessarily be aware of the direct reasoning behind said changes.
What makes them loyal to Putin? I can understand loyalty to Prigožin: he's the guy who pays them and at the same time he's not some celestial bureaucrat who manifests only as a payslip signature or an image on TV. The big man is right there in the compound, close enough to be relatable.
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I find this hard to take seriously.
Putin has been moving military forces through Belarus for months, and they literally staged there.
Further, Russian false flags tend to be less than perfect, certainly not to the extent that they burn 7 aircraft and Putin's prestige over it.
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