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I think that a very common and under-discussed fallacy that is often engaged in by people of all sorts of political persuasions is overestimating the degree to which the future is predictable.
Imagine telling a Roman in 100 AD that 1500 years in the future, the world's best scientists would be from Britain and Germany. Or telling him that for much of the next 2000 years, Europe would be dominated by a religion created by Jews. Imagine telling a Persian in 500 AD that his country would soon come under the domination of a religion and political system created by Arab tribes. Imagine telling a Marxist in 1870 that Russia would be the first country in which communists would seize power. Or telling pretty much anyone in 1870 about antibiotics, nuclear weapons, the moon landings, and computers. Or telling a Jew in 1900 that 50 years later, the majority of Europe's Jews would have been killed. Or telling an American in 1980 that 10 years later, the USSR would no longer exist.
The course of political, social, and technological change is very hard to predict yet people keep being convinced by arguments of the "we must do X because then Y will surely happen" and "we must do X, otherwise Y will surely happen" variety. Of course it is possible to predict the future to some extent, and we must try to predict it. And it would be foolish for people to blind themselves to obvious threats just because things might turn out well. And sometimes, an easily predicted future does indeed come to be. For example, it was obvious in January 1945 that Germany was going to lose the war, and it did. But many other things that it seemed would obviously happen never did, and many things that no-one or almost no-one had predicted did happen.
Any political argument that is based in a deep conviction, as opposed to just speculation, about what is going to happen in the future is suspect. And arguments that go "we must do X because then Y will surely happen" (for example, "we must create communism because then people will live better") or "we must do X because otherwise Y will surely happen" (for example, "we must create a white ethnostate, otherwise white people will be destroyed") should be carefully examined. If one does not remember the constant failure of humans, all through the course of history, to predict future events, it is easy to be seduced by well-crafted narratives into believing that the causal connection between X and Y is more certain than it actually is.
The fallacy is probably common in part because for most people, thinking "I know what to do to make things better" feels better than thinking "I don't know what the fuck is going to happen". But also, many people simply do not have much understanding of history, so they just are not aware of how seldom people in the past have been able to successfully predict the future.
I disagree with the thesis. It might be hard at the moment to predict with precision when an empire will rise or fall, but the things that create strong civilizations are pretty well known.
A commitment to meritocracy, a strong work ethic, and (especially post-industrial revolution) a commitment to education are key cultural traits to develop. If you look at any of the countries that became powerful, you’ll find these things happening. The Germans lead Europe through having a highly educated population willing to work hard and actively promoted high achievers. They had electrified cities because they created a large crop of good engineers in their universities.
The second trait is entrepreneurial spirit. The ideal of a person having an idea, building it, and selling it. People adopting new technologies and using them to solve problems and do interesting things. And a state that mostly stays out of the way letting technology grow and develop. Americans, especially, excelled at this. If there was anything people wanted or needed, someone would invent it and sell it. And of course people were quick to adopt and adapt these gadgets to get things done.
A third would be self-confidence. Rising civilizations believe in themselves and their ideas. They are right and thus have the ambition to try to make a mark on the world. The Spanish never questioned their natural right to the New World. Britain didn’t wring her hands over whether or not it was right to conquer all their territories or to rule them as she saw fit. Britain of yesteryear saw absolutely nothing wrong with imposing her language, her ways, and her economic policies on the majority of the globe. China, in our era does much the same.
Even assuming that everything you say is true, it does not allow us to accurately predict whether or not country X will become an empire, for several reasons:
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