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I started writing a post for the culture war thread, and it got longer than I thought it would so I ended up just posting it as its own thread. I know some people don't always see those threads, so I thought I'd post a link here. I'm open to discussing it in either location:
https://www.themotte.org/post/604/the-case-for-ignoring-race
It doesn't take very many changes, nor does it take rare or unusual changes to make race highly salient. Let's take it outside of the dark street in a bad section of town; should I be more concerned by a black guy than a white guy that fits this description on Michigan Avenue in Chicago? I think so. Let's remove the demeanor and neighborhood, but hold all else constant - would you feel more threatened by a young black man than a young Asian man in a hoodie? Let's keep everything the same, but flip the gender - are black women more threatening than women of Hmong descent? Let's change almost everything and update to a guy in his 40s approaching me in a grocery store parking lot - surely you'd think race is at least somewhat informative on how this interaction is likely to go?
Basically, I think you stacked the deck to be as substantially bad of a situation as possible and followed up with, "well, a white guy that fits all of the worst characteristics you can think of is bad too". Sure. Fair. I would definitely avoid a threatening looking Chinese guy with a weapon in a neighborhood known for Triad gang activity. I'm also a lot less likely to encounter that than the various black permutations, to the point where 6.6% my state is black and they account for 67% of my state's murders. On the grocery store example above, where I'm unlikely to be targeted for violence, I can guess with a high degree of certainty that the black guy is going to be asking me for money.
Now, perhaps morally I should elect to hear that guy out either way, maybe he really does just need $10 for a can of gas, but it surely informs my decision-making process.
I can't speak for Chicago. But for Ireland? The US Department of State has recently issued a travel advisory to tourists coming to Ireland about being wary, and it's because of this incident.
A bunch of our own home-grown little scumbags, all teenagers, at least one of them a minor - and nobody is black. So if the argument is "black people are inherently stupider/more violent than white people", that may or may not be - but whether they're white or black or brown, avoiding guys in hoodies is a good idea.
It isn't. I've read enough history to be confident that there's plenty of white-on-white violence. Nothing in my post even hints in the direction of whether behavior is substantially innate to a group or not, and whether it's innate or learned isn't relevant to my assessment of risk. My objection in the context of the few hundred miles around me is that race absolutely has substantial predictive value with regard to random crime or semi-random interpersonal violence. Again, if you stack the deck sufficiently, you can make that particular risk factor negligible. Yes, I'm well aware that if I'm wearing a shirt that says, "United Ireland" on it, I should regard a white guy with a Red Hand tattoo as plausibly threatening. Likewise, I'm not going to go to the bank and freak out when there's a black guy helping me set up my account. There are, however, plenty of situations in the middle where the information is relevant and I'm disinclined to pretend otherwise for the sake of social improvement.
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