This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
And if they get Trump they're toast. That's the problem. And if they can't find him off now they won't be able to in 2028 either, regardless of how old he is. The GOP has underperformed for three straight election cycles, and they're barreling into four with abandon. The only way they're going to win back the voters who have abandoned them is to convince them that this party is a different one than the one they voted against in 2020. Instead we get a full-throated embrace of election denial/ January 6th nonsense that won't go away. They need to pull off the bandaid but are incapable of doing so. It's like an episode of Bar Rescue where the owner is going down with the ship because he's worried about alienating regulars. That's usually good advice, but when the regulars can't keep you in business then something's got to give.
The GOP didn't underperform in 2018 or 2020. They underperformed in 2022 when Trump wasn't on the ballot because of poor voter turn-out. Given historical trends for midterm losses in the first term, the Trump lead GOP in 2018 did the best in the last 50 years.
Is this where we pretend that Trump didn't get the 2nd most votes in the history of the country, improving on his previous total by 11,000,000 votes?
failing to address the obvious election fraud is precisely the reason why they performed so poorly in the 2020 senate runoffs in GA and in many 2022 races, not because of ongoing fraud (although that definitely did happen), but because they don't motivate their voters to show up
the person who motivates their voters to show up is Donald Trump; trying to claim the GOP's strategy for the last 2 years is "election denail/jan 6 nonsense" is simply wrong given they've done nothing at all in response to either of those and, in fact, helped opposition party attack their own on those exact issues
the countryclub suburban GOP voters of the 1990s aren't coming back no matter how much you trash trump and promise you're totally not like him because those voters are dead or strongly Democrat
edit: Just like another conversation we had here, Trump didn't lose the "Republican Stronghold" which voted for Obama by 8 points in 2012 and even more for Obama in 2008. Trump is not the reason for GOP failure, especially in Pennsylvania (a state which hadn't gone to a GOP presidential candidate since 1988). Doubling down on denouncing Trump and whipping yourself isn't going to win you back the "Republican Stronghold" which voted for Obama by 8 points.
Trump is remarkably good at motivating Republican voters. I would argue that the only thing he is better at is motivating Democrat voters, thus no longer being president.
He motivated "Democrat" voters so much, they sometimes voted multiple times in different states! Truly historic rates of voter participation, but only in counties controlled by certain people using certain procedures. Neighboring counties not controlled by those people using those procedures didn't see that magical turn-out.
There are lots of reasons Donald Trump isn't president; you could likely put most of these under a "motivates Democrats" banner, but some specifics would be the illegal and unconstitutional ways in which elections were conducted in explicit contravention to election laws across dozens of states. The GOP, the courts, and the law were wholly useless in addressing this issue.
When I worked in politics, you could pretty much tell if the GOP or Democrats would win an election by basic turn-out numbers. DJT changed that dynamic where it's the opposite now. In the motivation game, Trump may motivate a minority of people into hysterics, but in sheer numbers Trump motivates his voters more than the opposite.
If they could cheat under Trump, they certainly can under Biden. So either way, if Trump runs, he loses, whether it's fair and square or a tipping of the scales.
The 2020 election was closer than the 2016 election. Illegal changes made to election law and procedures by executive fiat justified by "the pandemic" no longer exist in most places with courts already ruling against those changes. The pandemic is not around to justify vast mobilization of state power and cowardice on the part of courts. The State operating at peak power prohibiting in-person interaction and mobilization (unless race riots ofc) and forcing people into manipulated online spaces isn't around anymore, either.
The state cashed in a whole lot of single-use plays in order to get Trump, and even with all of that and more, the election came down to tens of thousands of votes in a few states. It came down to a judge in any of 5 states allowing a filed election contest to be heard or even a slight peek at those definitely legitimate ballot signatures.
Could Trump run and lose? Sure, and it will take another vast and more ridiculous fraud campaign. The reason Trump is being indicted isn't because the regime is sure he's going to run and lose, it's because they know he could win and he's dangerous to that regime.
Another Trump run and subsequent obvious fraud by the regime has its own benefits. And in comparison to what? Without Trump, the GOP will lose anyway. And even if that's not true, I don't see how a Trump-less GOP victory would benefit rightwing politics in any way.
So is it your view that Trump simply having less support in the crucial states by election time is simply an inconceivable outcome?
one, no, which is why I acknowledge trump could lose
two, trump could have less support than now in crucial states and still win the presidency; trump could have less support than 2020 and still win the presidency
we're talking about states trump lost by ~10,000 votes when courts in those states have since ruled edit:
100,000+ in that election votes illegalelection procedures and directives used in the 2020 election were illegal and the votes cast, counted, or cured, due to these illegal changes were well beyond the vote totals difference in the previous election (cases in both WI and PA)Which rulings were these?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link