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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   28305 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 28, 2023

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A motte for the term: The deep state

Without endorsing any particular theories here, perhaps the best way to think about the deep state is that it is simply parts of the government that have developed their own distinct political goals and capabilities, and are involved in the political process in ways that may or may not be visible, legal or proper. In some vague sense, a "deep state" may simply be a function of a government. Any government that remains stable for long enough will develop capabilities that do not require a given person at the top, since the leaders change over time. Those abilities will then be put to use in service of whatever political goals unite that part of government.

This becomes more open and more contentious in a democracy when parts of the government revolt against elected leaders.

The "deep state" is a motte-and-bailey where the motte is public choice theory and the bailey is that a cabal of civil servants controls the USG.

I'll happily defend what you think is the bailey as my motte. I used to subscribe to "structural" theories providing mundane explanation for dysfunctional behaviors of institutions, and dismiss "conspiracy" theories, but the last few years have utterly discredited the former, and I haven't actually heard a good argument to dismiss the latter.

The good argument against it is that it would be something that would likely produce tons of evidence of it's existence, and we have no such evidence, despite tons and tons of scrutiny on the matter? Which is pretty much the standard argument against most conspiracy theories.

Unless you do have evidence you want to cite, in which case, we'll probably disagree on what 'cabal' and 'controls' means. Obviously people have influence over things, and obviously when there's only two political parties some of those people will be political allies with each other, but I think 'cabal' and 'control' are both big stretches for the things that are already part of the public record.

The good argument against it is that it would be something that would likely produce tons of evidence of it's existence, and we have no such evidence, despite tons and tons of scrutiny on the matter?

That's not a good argument, that's a terrible argument!

First of all, you surely heard of survivorship bias, well there's also it's opposite. Just because you shot down all those airplanes doesn't mean there aren't some that evaded your fire. There might even be stealth airplanes you never saw coming.

Secondly, there are conspiracy theories that did end up getting backed by evidence - see Epstein's Island and his prostitution ponzi scheme.

Unless you do have evidence you want to cite, in which case, we'll probably disagree on what 'cabal' and 'controls' means.

Indeed, that has been my experience. You can drop the craziest idea like "the global elites are deliberately coordinating to spread LGBT ideology around the world", and everybody calls it a conspiracy theory and demands evidence. When you provide evidence, it magically doesn't count, because you have evidence.

Obviously people have influence over things.

This refutes the idea that the Deep State boils down to public choice theory.

but I think 'cabal' and 'control' are both big stretches for the things that are already part of the public record.

Well, you can just not use these words when you're criticizing conspiracy theorists.

When you provide evidence, it magically doesn't count, because you have evidence.

Yes, the "deep" modifier of "the deep state" suggests such layered institutional presence that "the deep state" controls what counts as "evidence," making it therefore impossible to prove its existence within deep state-controlled venues.

That's not true. "Deep" suggests a parallel power structure within the official government one, as in: "a state within a state".

Also, I was talking about all conspiracy theories, not just this one.

And you can't say "if it's true there would be evidence" and "if there's evidence, it's not true". The latter is nonsensical on it's own terms, but together it's just a plain contradiction.

Editing this out because I missed the last portion of your sentence somehow, and that means my objection is meaningless. Preserving it as a quote in case someone is working on a reply already.

Uh, no? As someone who uses the term deep state and has a rough idea of what I'm talking about when I do, there are mountains and mountains of evidence that this deep state exists. They have a level of influence over the media and society but their power isn't total. If you want an example of something that I'd view as direct action by the deep state, look at the Hunter Biden laptop letter that was signed by various members of the intelligence community. We now know that the people who signed that letter were actively lying and knew they were lying in order to shift an election, but what matters is that there is direct and primary evidence that the deep state is both real and using their influence to shift public opinion. There's been polls and research done which suggests that if the Hunter Biden laptop story wasn't suppressed it would have changed the outcome of the election.

That's a clear example of the deep state in action - they aren't the Learned Elders of Zion or the Stonecutters meeting in shady rooms, they are another power bloc competing for influence in the government. They have a lot of power in some respects but substantially less in others... but they really don't have the ability to decide what counts as evidence outside incredibly specific circumstances (FISA courts etc).

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Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

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