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Notes -
Vivek Ramaswamy has written an article on his foreign policy doctrine, focusing on China.
He is squarely taking aim at the "neocons and liberal internationalists", in other words the two main constituents of what Obama referred to as "the Blob" dominating foreign policy in D.C. He is predictably being called an isolationist and WaPo columnists are freaking out.
WaPo columnists themselves are not relevant but they are often mouthpieces for more powerful interests. Trump was hated for many things but one underappreciated aspect of why the Blob hated him was his instinct not to start new wars. In fact, he is one of the few presidents in recent memory who did not start a new war and he tried to get out of Syria - twice - but was undermined by his own bureaucracy.
Vivek is a much smarter guy than Trump, so I wonder if the Blob would be able to run circles around him the way they did around Trump. I doubt it and I suspect they doubt it too, which is why I think a campaign to destroy Vivek is likely to ramp up before too long. Trump couldn't be controlled outright but at least he could be misled.
Ramaswamy proposes sharing nuclear submarine technology with India, with the expectation that India will help block Chinese shipping in the event of a US-China war. I don't believe India will ever do this. It has a vast population with very little disposable income. Although its GDP of 10 trillion dollars (PPP) is sizable, most of it is needed for sustenance. There is little left over for war. Thus, if India did get involved in a US-China war, it would probably not make a huge impact. India would risk antagonizing China further without substantially increasing the probability of a Chinese defeat. It would be better for India to hope that China loses without joining the conflict herself.
Besides, Taiwan falling isn't nearly as big of a deal to India as it is to Japan/US. India's conflict with China is at their land border in the Himalayas. Taiwan is in a totally different direction.
India and China are already political enemies. They are economically tied to the hip (with India being the more dependent one), but none of the products consumed by India from China are essential (food, clothing, infra). The Indian populace also hates China, so assisting US in a US-China war would be aligned with all of India's interests. The economic hit received by India will be harsh, but the popular hatred for China is a good mechanism for allowing people to productively suffer through it.
A US-China war is a world war. Pakistan will mobilize in Gwadar for Hormuz and India will move as a counter balance.
India won't need to block Chinese shipping, because US is going to unilaterally sanction anyone who takes in Chinese shipping. But if it comes down to it, India will move to secure its neighborhood.
And why would India not leverage a US-China war to recover areas of Aksai-Chin that would block the Karakorum highway ?
Most of the world has more trade with China/Russia than with the US.
Would they even care?
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