This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
There's no solid evidence that Joe got any money despite Republicans aggressively looking for it for years now.
Correct. Even if it was a slam-dunk case, it still probably wouldn't matter. "Impeachment" has become little more than a press conference with some adornments.
Honestly there isn’t a good reason for the money to directly go to Joe. Just more taxes when Joe eventually dies and the money becomes Hunters trust fund.
Just because impeachment isn’t much more than a press conference doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t hold him as accountable as they can for probably the largest bribery scandal in a century.
A quibble, but just under a century if you mean "since Teapot Dome", which was 1921-23.
More seriously, it is only the biggest bribery scandal because we don't know what Jared Kushner did for the $300 million or so the Saudis are bunging him ($300mm is my best guess of the management fee he will be getting on the $2 billion investment in his PE fund). The Jack Abramoff scandal is also bigger than Hunter in terms of dollar amount and had sympathetic victims, but it isn't clear it counts as a bribery scandal (Abramoff was prosecuted for bilking the Indian tribes who hired his lobbying firm).
My view is that the worst US bribery scandal in recent years would be the Clinton-era Chinese campaign contributions. Biden isn't accused of doing anything nearly as bad as turning a blind eye to Chinese nuclear espionage in exchange for the money.
Hunter had office space had Joe on the lease with a CCP operative. Less proven than the Burisma stuff but the Bidens seem to have been getting bribed by the Chinese too.
https://dailycaller.com/2023/09/14/hunter-biden-office-mates-joe-chinese-business-associate-emails-show/
End of the day every thing assumed ends up being true so ya Bidens were probably selling secrets/access to China against American interests knowingly.
More options
Context Copy link
The Saudis are throwing money at a lot of people. I have a friends dad who’s a former big exec on their payroll too.
I think we do know what Kush did. The worst interpretation was helping with pressure from Kashoggi. The best would be they worked with him on the Abraham Accords which I don’t know anyone who thinks they were bad or against American interests. The Kashoggi stuff has been American foreign policy for decades of looking the other way as long as the Saudi gas station stays open. And Biden has stayed allied with them.
I hate Kush for taking their money. His background is fine for being the face guy for a pe firm. And I think he could have raised the money in more traditional routes. High ranking administration officials do get those sort of gigs. Rahm was a well paid investment banker. Peter Orszag popped up recently as the CEO of Lazard.
$300 million could be right. Tough to know. I’d assume 2 and 20. So $40 million a year in management fees and most pe firms want 2.5 CAC return goal so if he hits that’s would be $3 billion in profits or $600 million to the firm. But of course he needs to invest well and pay his people.
More options
Context Copy link
I am positive Kush is getting 2&20. 2% mgmt fee and then carry of 20%. So if he got 2b in funds mgmt fee would be 40m. The real money is in the carry but that requires doing successful deals.
I estimated $300m based on $40m per year over the life of the fund, which is usually 5 or 7 years, plus a conservative estimate of the carry on the assumption that Kushner is a mediocre investor.
The carry is a free option (the fund manager gets paid if the fund beats the hurdle, but keeps the 2% fee if it doesn't) and if Kushner just invested in the S&P500 the Black-Scholes EV of the carry would be about $26 million. With some reasonable assumptions about using leverage to add volatility, I get numbers in the $100-150 million range.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Assuming there actually was bribery, which, again, is still very much unproven despite months of a Republican led investigation to find evidence of exactly that.
Under the standard of “proven” you are using nothing is ever truly proven in this world. Outside of Joe or Hunter confessing we will never hit your standard of proven.
For a jury trial I’d convict him beyond a reasonable doubt on many of the accusations.
On bribery and treason against American interest he’s guilty.
Strawman. I don't have some crazy burden of proof like you're saying I do. I really don't think asking for more evidence than hearsay that doesn't even refer to Joe by name is absurd.
Hunter is clearly a dirtbag, although he had far, far less influence than Kushner, who actively shaped many of Trump's policies and who's received billions in Saudi funding as a result.
Resorting to whataboutism when you can’t defend your position.
Whataboutism is when you complain about something materially different, e.g. Soviets responding to any American critique by saying "and you are lynching negroes".
My point isn't "whataboutism", it's a critique of blatant hypocrisy. "Political corruption is an impeachable offense, but only when my outgroup does it!"
but retorted with a critical counter-question which expresses a counter-accusation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whataboutism
And that isn’t even hypocrisy. No one here has said Kushan is off limits from being investigated. Though what he did is different.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Kushner should be investigated. But there is a lot more evidence than merely hearsay that doesn’t refer to Joe by name. See other posts.
The only real evidence on Kush is helping the Saudis with Kashoggi. But that’s also been US policy for decades to let the Saudis do some shit we don’t like as long their gas station stays fully operational. The Abraham Accords everyone thinks was a good thing.
I think Kush was lazy raising his fun from the Saudis and should have just hit up Trump aligned endowments. And Kush has the background in this area to be a fund manager.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link