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Notes -
Trudeau accuses India in killing of Sikh leader on Canadian soil
First of all, I want to state that my epistemic status is huh, rather an informed opinion, but I struggle to think of anyone in a better position on The Motte to discuss this, so bear with me.
India has had its share of irredentists, separatists and good old fashioned terrorists over the years. You have the Maoists still lurking in the north east, playing hot and cold with the government via their jungle boogaloo. Islamic terrorism was a serious issue in 2010s, though it's died down. There were the Tamil Tigers down south, who proved a severe PITA for a decade or so, and then the Khalistanis, who have been largely neutered in-country but find refuge in the numerous, prosperous Sikh diaspora abroad.
The last two have had the dubious distinction of getting confirmed kills on two Indian Prime Ministers (relatives to boot).
Khalistan is the supposed homeland of the Sikh peoples, largely surrounding Punjab in the west. Unable to get it during the original Partition of India, they waged a brutal war against the Indian government for decades, peaking in the 70s and 80s. There were quite a few pogroms and riots, with Hindu on Sikh violence in the rest of India, and vice versa in their population centers.
These days, the movement is moribund within India itself, most young Sikhs don't really pay it any heed, and the older aren't the demographic to go planting bombs for the large part. Sikhs are well integrated into Indian society, and haven't had that consistent friction that the Muslims have had with their Hindu co-ethnics.
Not that you'd know this abroad. Much like IRA sympathizers hanging around in New Jersey bars, the exodus of Sikhs in the 70s and 80s ossified in amber a large migrant population with a grudge to bear against the Indian government.
I'd draw a distinction between these first-wave migrants, and a more recent influx of Sikhs who are drawn more by the prospects of making it big in Canada, or the West in general, rather than any real grievance.
While Khalistan is dead in the water, it's a popular rallying cry there, with Western governments treating it with a mixture of bemused tolerance and kid-gloves for fear of pissing off the strong Sikh voting bloc. Speaking ill of them is, from what I've heard, a surefire way of losing a narrow election, but they're otherwise model citizens and nobody wants to press the issue.
Now, Modi stands accused of the shooting of this dude sometime in June, when he was shot by unidentified gunmen in the parking lot of a gurdwara in Surrey. If there's more substance to the accusation, they haven't been made public, but the heads of state have met to hash it out.
From what I can tell, Modi's response was "we didn't do it, but if it happened, he had it coming", strongly protesting the accusations while demanding Canada be less lenient in harboring terrorists.
Modi also stands accused of the assassination in Lahore of another Khalistan leader, not that anyone particularly cared at the time, and that's just the usual India-Pakistan bhai-bhai at play.
That's the gist of it, on one hand, we have the fact that India has largely refrained from extraterritorial assassinations, certainly not to the degree that the US, Russia or Israel are fond of. I struggle to think of a single example, not that I'm an expert.
On the other, who the fuck else has a motive to whack the dude? I don't think relations between India and Canada are bad enough for the latter to make entirely unfounded accusations, and they've even roped in a few other countries like the UK and US to bring diplomatic pressure to bear. The Head of Foreign Intelligence for India was kicked out from Canada, and some bloke named Oliver Sylvester was the tit to that tat.
I'd wager 50% odds that India was responsible based on the balance of evidence, and I wonder if this will be a flash in the pan that peters out when the Sikhs are mollified, or if Canada really wants to pick a fight with an otherwise neutral/positively inclined major nation.
But if you're curious, this means zilch in terms of impact on Modi's popularity of home, you think supporters of a strongman are going to be mad when he strongmans? Even the libs over at /r/India who foam at the mouth at the sight of Modi are of the opinion he had it coming.
It'd be odd for India to start whacking Khalistanis in Canada about 40 years after the Sikh insurgency. Even more odd is that people with higher bounties continue to live free lives in Canada. If the Indian Govt. had to do a covert assassination, Nijjar wouldn't make it to the top 100 list.
Trudeau himself seems misinformed since the guy was never granted Canadian citizenship.(might have been a citizen?) The guy came to Canada in 1997. Used a false passport. His refugee claim was rejected, but 11 days after that, he married a woman who sponsored him for immigration. That, too, was rejected. As of 2016. his Interpol wanted notice mentioned his nationality as Indian. (assuming that the screenshot being used by top media houses is legitimate)Are we going to forget the 1985 bombings. Model citizens who're only responsible for the 'worst terrorist act on Canadian soil'. The Sikhs overall are great people, but they do have a larger violent underbelly than most other Asian immigrant groups.
I agree it's a rather queer move, which is why I only assigned ~50% credence to the Indian government ordering the hit. It's really not our style.
Interesting, I hadn't heard anyone point this out while the news was breaking. Though, from a Canadian perspective, I doubt they care overmuch if he's a citizen, more that he was potentially assassinated on their soil. Either way, they have a bunch of Sikhs to appease.
Forget? I'd never heard of it in the first place!
But as far as I can tell, Sikhs aren't the type to not get along if you live and let live. Let them erect their gurudwaras, wear their turbans and twirl their knives about, and I doubt they would raise a fuss.
In the India Subreddit they take that as proof that Sikhs infiltrated the Canadian intelligence agencies:
https://old.reddit.com/r/india/comments/16mict9/india_expels_top_canadian_diplomat_as_trudeau_row/k18rrxs/
A witness was also murdered and „ a consequence of his murder, the affidavit was inadmissible as evidence.[149] This was later cited as a reason why the suspects in the bombing were eventually acquitted in 2005“.
Juicy fodder for conspiracy theorists!
WOW, I don't think you realize how monumental this is.
The India subreddit likely the most anti-India place inhabited by Indians. Even the most moderate individual used to get banned within a day. It was well understood to be run by hyper-liberal woker-than-is-humanly-possible type mods. I kid you not. There were rumors of the sub being run by a Pakistani, is how incredibly anti-India that place used to be.
If even /r/India sides against Trudeau in this story, then there is true bipartisanship on the matter.
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