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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 18, 2023

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Agreed

Yet Russia's PISA scores are consistently middle-of-the-pack, in mathematics above the US.

Obviously things other than IQ matter. But what, precisely, are you arguing against?

Do you believe genetics is responsible for, say, 10% of variation in educational outcomes? 20%? 50%? 80%? And I specifically mean current variation, not hypothetical variation with different forms of education (which would push up black and white equally, and leave them ranked the same).

Russia has an average IQ similar to France and my understanding is that the ethnic minorities who drag it down are concentrated in the same areas of the country. It’s Pisa scores are OK and it’s consistently capable of producing very talented people. By HBD metrics the Russian majority areas of the country should be as nice a place to live as Western Europe, but they’re definitely not.

And it’s not even compensating for history because EG Poland and the Baltics have done a much better job of closing the gap. It’s pure culture and mismanagement.

what, precisely, are you arguing against?

In this case? nothing. I'm agreeing with @hydroacetylene

Sorry, reinterpret that in the context of the overall discussion. How much impact do you think genes have on academic achievement? Both among individuals of the same race (where imo studies demonstrate it's >50%), and between races (i.e. how much of the jewish/white achievement gap is due to differences in genes between jews/whites)

Ahh.

To answer your question, when it comes to things like academics, athletics, or military effectiveness, I think that the effect of genetics (excluding the presence of serous congenital defects) is marginal to non-existant unless you're focusing on the extreme tail-ends of the bell curve. Otherwise the "noise" of individual environmental factors is inevitably going to overwhelm whatever "signal" there is that can be drawn from genetics.

HBDers ask "why is it that some kids run the mile faster than others?" And my response is that it could be any number of reasons, footwear, running form, general levels of lower body strength, differences in cardio fitness, a willingness to push one's body to the point of discomfort/distress, and/or all of the above.

In order to prove that genetics is the only meaningful factor you need to be able to prove that all of these other factors are not.

I strongly disagree, and think that this disagreement is a 'crux' for the race-iq disagreement. Obviously if genes play no role in individual intelligence for the median individual, it plays no role in group difference.

Otherwise the "noise" of individual environmental factors is inevitably going to overwhelm whatever "signal" there is that can be drawn from genetics

You are/were engineer of some sort, right? Imagine you're buying parts for a series of machines at a factory. One brand fails in an average of 3 years, another brand fails in an average of 4 years. These are the only two possible choices, and they both have the same price. But - the standard deviation is .7 years! Does the "noise" overwhelm the "environmental factors"? In one sense, yes, for any individual washer it's tough to guess which brand they came from. In another sense, no, you know which brand you're choosing. And if you see a washer last 7 years, its' probably from the second brand (depending on the distribution).

The point is that whether the environmental 'noise' washes out the gene 'signal' depends on how large they both are. If genes cause +.1 stddev, then they don't matter in practice. If they cause +1 stddev, they do. Different natural histories for humanity could give us alternatives either way. If we took my gene editing suggestion - in a hundred years - probably environment would suddenly become the best way to improve human intelligence again (well, ignoring AI). But we have to measure how strong both are.

And that takes us to science.

Intelligence is a core construct in differential psychology and behavioural genetics, and should be so in cognitive neuroscience. It is one of the best predictors of important life outcomes such as education, occupation, mental and physical health and illness, and mortality. Intelligence is one of the most heritable behavioural traits. Here, we highlight five genetic findings that are special to intelligence differences and that have important implications for its genetic architecture and for gene-hunting expeditions. (i) The heritability of intelligence increases from about 20% in infancy to perhaps 80% in later adulthood. (ii) Intelligence captures genetic effects on diverse cognitive and learning abilities, which correlate phenotypically about 0.30 on average but correlate genetically about 0.60 or higher. (iii) Assortative mating is greater for intelligence (spouse correlations 0.40) than for other behavioural traits such as personality and psychopathology (0.10) or physical traits such as height and weight (~0.20). Assortative mating pumps additive genetic variance into the population every generation, contributing to the high narrow heritability (additive genetic variance) of intelligence. (iv) Unlike psychiatric disorders, intelligence is normally distributed with a positive end of exceptional performance that is a model for ‘positive genetics’. (v) Intelligence is associated with education and social class and broadens the causal perspectives on how these three inter-correlated variables contribute to social mobility, and health, illness and mortality differences. These five findings arose primarily from twin studies.

Essentially, when you try to measure whether the signal or noise is higher with twin studies, the signal is stronger. We can also do GWASes, where we estimate the effect of individual genes on a trait like intelligence. Each gene has an extremely small effect, but when put together this can predict (some of the time - genetics-based heritability estimates are lower than those from twin studies, because many genes + small effect is hard, but it's increased over the past five years) which of two siblings will score higher on intelligence tests just from their genes.

This is also intuitively true. Clarence's son with another lawyer will be smarter than random joe. If Mahomes marries the daughter of another great football player, they'll be a better athlete than joe.