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Notes -
Sadly I commented about it elsewhere under my real name so prefer to remain vague about it :(
But I searched <Richard Hanania Poland> (to have less specific topic) and found this gem as the first match: https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1506652611851685889
where he
(1) compares wealth of country fighting but not strictly winning with Russia and implies that larger wealth would be definitely enough to crush Russia so strongly that it would not be a military threat (what is nonsense: maybe ratio is 20 or 50 or 100)
(2) forgets that it is not computer game where wealth directly translates to military power (see his own example, Germany - is he really claiming that German military is 12 times more powerful than Ukrainian one?)
(3) forgets that being military nuisance and threat is achievable with vastly lower expense if you focus on it, as Russia did (see also North Korea)
(3b) Russia has ICBMs and nukes. Entity having ICBMs and nukes is a military threat, potential targets being wealthy are not causing nuclear weapons to stop working.
Even if Europe would spend the same share of money and effort on military as Russia does, then Russia still would be a military threat (unless 100% effective anti-ICBM and anti-cruise missile systems would be created and deployed to cover entire Europe, which is dubious)
(3c) Russia still has enormous piles of weaponry and ability to produce more
(4) Has "This should end the idea that Russia is a military threat to "Europe" once and for all." and directly after that has "They could threaten the Baltics" which are part of Europe.
(5) Wait, is he claiming that Russia is unable to threaten Ukraine? Which is decidedly in Europe (lets assume he means EU by "Europe" to be charitable in interpreting it).
Also, claim that Ukraine per capita is only 6 times less wealthier than Germany is suspect to me. It looks like comparison of GDP with PPP adjustment (raw GDP has 11 times difference). But it is not wealth, that is just income. Accumulated income (=wealth) of Germany is much greater than he claims. What ironically makes his justification weaker than in reality.
Overall, not as egregious or problematic as other case that soured me on him - but not something that wants to me read his book, on topic where I am less able to spot suspect claims.
That's a shame, but I understand.
This is an interesting one, because on hand yeah, that's bad, but on the other GDP fetishism is a real problem among our intellectual classes. I almost don't want to blame him for taking prevailing theories at face value.
That part alone would be less problematic but claiming
about country that has nukes is hilarious. And claiming that Ukraine and Baltics are not in Europe.
(noone is obligated to post geopolitic hot takes on Twitter - but if he is doing them I am happy to judge him based on that)
(also, there is reason why I am not posting here under my real name. I post my professional stuff separately in way that is not mingled with posts on topics where I do not have 20+ year of expert knowledge)
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