naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
The Israelis are a paper tiger without daddy America. As this conflict showed (8 billion dollars needed from Uncle Sam within the first day of rocket attacks).
If the Israelis had the capability to attack Iran, then they'd have done it years ago. They don't and ultimately depend on the US to do it. Successive American administrations have turned down every request from Jerusalem.
Iran today is much more capable than it was 10 years ago. If Iran is attacked, they would almost certainly conduct a a massive attack on Saudi Arabia and other US-aligned countries. That would send the world economy into a gigantic depression if oil output suddenly crashed by 10-15 mb/d. Many Western strategic oil stocks are already depleted after the UA war so there wouldn't be much buffer space to absorb the shock.
Would Israel attack Iran if it predicted that Biden would privately oppose but publicly support the attack? From Israel's viewpoint, the attack leading to Iran attacking Saudi Arabia would be a good thing because this would bring US air power into the war.
From Israel's viewpoint, the attack leading to Iran attacking Saudi Arabia would be a good thing because this would bring US air power into the war.
Yes but it would also tank the world economy. And ultimately the US cares far more about that. Already today there are news of a major meeting between the Big Three of Europe (UK/FR/DE) and the US, ostensibly to prevent a wider conflagration in the region. Ultimately, Israel is a client state of the US and has to behave as such. It's on a short leash.
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Notes -
What are the chances that this leads to Israel attacking Iran? Iran appears to have been a supporter of Hamas. Netanyahu has seemingly been eager for a reason to dismantle Iran's nuclear weapons program. From Netanyahu's perspective, eliminating the program would make recent events a net gain for Israel. However, how would the global community respond to an Israeli assault on Iran? While many countries in the region would likely be pleased, they would need to feign outrage. Russia, having recently gotten weapons from Iran, would denounce the attack. But, given its diminished power, what action could Russia realistically take? Would Biden risk sanctioning Israel for such an action, particularly when his Republican adversaries would likely applaud it?
The Israelis are a paper tiger without daddy America. As this conflict showed (8 billion dollars needed from Uncle Sam within the first day of rocket attacks). If the Israelis had the capability to attack Iran, then they'd have done it years ago. They don't and ultimately depend on the US to do it. Successive American administrations have turned down every request from Jerusalem.
Iran today is much more capable than it was 10 years ago. If Iran is attacked, they would almost certainly conduct a a massive attack on Saudi Arabia and other US-aligned countries. That would send the world economy into a gigantic depression if oil output suddenly crashed by 10-15 mb/d. Many Western strategic oil stocks are already depleted after the UA war so there wouldn't be much buffer space to absorb the shock.
TL;DR near zero.
Would Israel attack Iran if it predicted that Biden would privately oppose but publicly support the attack? From Israel's viewpoint, the attack leading to Iran attacking Saudi Arabia would be a good thing because this would bring US air power into the war.
Yes but it would also tank the world economy. And ultimately the US cares far more about that. Already today there are news of a major meeting between the Big Three of Europe (UK/FR/DE) and the US, ostensibly to prevent a wider conflagration in the region. Ultimately, Israel is a client state of the US and has to behave as such. It's on a short leash.
Serbia was a client of Russia at the time Serbia pushed Russia to start WW I.
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