naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
28918 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
There seems to be a lack of real understanding of what Iran getting ‘directly involved’ looks like. Israel doesn’t have the capacity to fight a conventional war with Iran, it’s possible they could nuke Tehran in a Samson Option scenario but other than that they can’t wage war with Iran for a huge number of logistical reasons. Iran is very unlikely, too, to send conventional forces to Israel, supply routes are questionable and if they attempted it it’s likely the US would strike them as they crossed through Iraq. If Hamas gets pounded to dust the survivors can still receive support from Iran, Hezbollah can certainly still receive support from Iran and so on, its not game over and there’s no need for suicidal direct intervention, which even in a best case scenario likely results in a US strike on Tehran that kills a lot of senior leadership and ends the relatively comfortable life many of the leadership live.
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Notes -
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
There seems to be a lack of real understanding of what Iran getting ‘directly involved’ looks like. Israel doesn’t have the capacity to fight a conventional war with Iran, it’s possible they could nuke Tehran in a Samson Option scenario but other than that they can’t wage war with Iran for a huge number of logistical reasons. Iran is very unlikely, too, to send conventional forces to Israel, supply routes are questionable and if they attempted it it’s likely the US would strike them as they crossed through Iraq. If Hamas gets pounded to dust the survivors can still receive support from Iran, Hezbollah can certainly still receive support from Iran and so on, its not game over and there’s no need for suicidal direct intervention, which even in a best case scenario likely results in a US strike on Tehran that kills a lot of senior leadership and ends the relatively comfortable life many of the leadership live.
I agree an intervention of Iran would at least start with Hezbollah as proxy.
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