naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
You could have very strong reasons to reject funding to Ukraine while supporting funding to Israel. For example, Hamas is much less a threat compared to Russia.
You may think Israel is much more a strategic ally compared to Ukraine.
You may think the cause of Israel is better than Ukraine.
Maybe I should have said some republicans, as I'm pretty sure the majority do still support Ukraine funding. However it seems like some of the framing recently on the right around the Ukraine aid is that we can't afford it. I thought Gaetz has said that - correct me if I'm wrong - and I wonder if he will make a special exception for Israel.
Only a slim majority of Democratsin last week's Reuters/Ipsos poll, 52%, supported helping arm Ukraine. Support among Republicans was down at 35%.
This kind of thing is incredibly sensitive to question phrasing and context and such, though. A poll last month reported 77% and 50% support levels. Questions about economic assistance are pretty much in line with questions about military assistance.
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Notes -
Alright a little war gaming here. Suppose Hamas launched these attacks in order to provoke Israel into invading Gaza. Having stockpiled weapons received from Iran including ATGM and S2A missles, has chosen Gaza as their battlefield, the middle eastern Stalingrad. The IDF goes into Gaza and takes a real beating, close urban warfare diminishing Israeli technological advantage.
With the IDF being bogged down in Gaza Hezbollah attacks from the north, or Israel makes some preemptive strikes, in any case Iran gets involved, mines the straight of Hormuz. US joins the fray and gets dragged in, China sees its opportunity and launches its invasion of Taiwan. Oil skyrockets and the US enters a hard recession. US/NATO weapon stockpiles and strategic oil reserve depleted, makes for a rough start to WW3.
What do you think happens domestically (in the US) and globally? I don't think there is enough political unity nor appetite for the US population to enter into another war. Will any other countries enter the conflict? IMO this would not end well for US hegemony.
In the short term it is going to be hilarious to see the Republicans be hypocrites, against Ukraine aid but fervently for Israeli aid and support.
Edit: Also curious what the mottizens think on how these current events, and the aforementioned hypotheticals, will affect the US 2024 election.
You could have very strong reasons to reject funding to Ukraine while supporting funding to Israel. For example, Hamas is much less a threat compared to Russia.
You may think Israel is much more a strategic ally compared to Ukraine.
You may think the cause of Israel is better than Ukraine.
Maybe I should have said some republicans, as I'm pretty sure the majority do still support Ukraine funding. However it seems like some of the framing recently on the right around the Ukraine aid is that we can't afford it. I thought Gaetz has said that - correct me if I'm wrong - and I wonder if he will make a special exception for Israel.
Only a slim majority of Democrats in last week's Reuters/Ipsos poll, 52%, supported helping arm Ukraine. Support among Republicans was down at 35%.
This kind of thing is incredibly sensitive to question phrasing and context and such, though. A poll last month reported 77% and 50% support levels. Questions about economic assistance are pretty much in line with questions about military assistance.
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