naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
I think most of this is covered here if you read thru threads.
I’ll cover number 1
Egypt has a 20 ft wall above and below ground. Surprisingly Egypt doesn’t want a death cult in their territory. From as far as I can tell nobody wants them.
Thanks. I've read all the threads here, and I still don't have answers to these questions. I've seen plenty of confident assertions (of course), but they often conflict and typically lack support.
For example, to respond to your answer, I've seen suggestions here and elsewhere that America and Israel have exerted pressure on Egypt to not open their border with Gaza to an exodus of Palestinian refugees / an influx of humanitarian supplies. Is this claim totally without basis?
In the past they may have. In the current environment it seems like Egypt really doesn’t want them. Even if it came with a big western check.
One thought experience I’ve had is what would SBF do if his degen bets paid off. He’d probably be proposing writing a 50 billion check to resettle them . But I’m not sure who wants them. Long term would end the Palestinian/Israel issue which maybe is an area that could set off something cataclysmic for humanity.
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Notes -
Some narrow questions about the current conflict.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
I think most of this is covered here if you read thru threads.
I’ll cover number 1
Egypt has a 20 ft wall above and below ground. Surprisingly Egypt doesn’t want a death cult in their territory. From as far as I can tell nobody wants them.
Thanks. I've read all the threads here, and I still don't have answers to these questions. I've seen plenty of confident assertions (of course), but they often conflict and typically lack support.
For example, to respond to your answer, I've seen suggestions here and elsewhere that America and Israel have exerted pressure on Egypt to not open their border with Gaza to an exodus of Palestinian refugees / an influx of humanitarian supplies. Is this claim totally without basis?
In the past they may have. In the current environment it seems like Egypt really doesn’t want them. Even if it came with a big western check.
One thought experience I’ve had is what would SBF do if his degen bets paid off. He’d probably be proposing writing a 50 billion check to resettle them . But I’m not sure who wants them. Long term would end the Palestinian/Israel issue which maybe is an area that could set off something cataclysmic for humanity.
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