naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
Well, let’s say Egypt suddenly said anyone who wants to come can come. Ignoring the potential direct issues for Egypt, what might follow?
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
It’s a fair assumption that anyone who left is never going to see their home again, unless Israel falls. Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
If sufficiently many leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former
Mandatory Palestine, thus giving them impetus to formally annex it all and end the Palestinian dream for good.
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
Prohibiting the exit of Palestinian civilians from Gaza because keeping these civilians in Gaza limits Israel's scope of military operation seems consistent with Israel's complaints about the use of Palestinian "human shields."
Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
It's hard for me to see the Arab world blaming Egypt for allowing refugees to exit a war zone. Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
If sufficiently many [Palestinians] leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine.
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I'm not saying it's necessarily the correct or the most ethical choice for Egyptians, I was just trying to explain that there's an internal logic to it.
Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
It would have been quite hard to do so in a situation where Egypt, and other Arab countries, were actively fighting against Israel. OTOH in current day numerous Arabs inside and outside Egypt already see the Egyptian government as the pawn of Israel and the West.
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I fail to see how it wouldn't be, especially for the Israeli Right, including Likud. They consistently talk of "Judea and Samaria" as a part of the Land of Israel, they expand settlements, they consistently repudiate any sort of a Palestinian state, they of course will absolutely not give up the idea of Israel as a Jewish state - what sort of an other end goal would there be?
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Notes -
Some narrow questions about the current conflict.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
Well, let’s say Egypt suddenly said anyone who wants to come can come. Ignoring the potential direct issues for Egypt, what might follow?
Israel would have (more of a) carte blanche to just indiscriminately whale on Gaza. After all, it would be easier to say that anyone who did not leave is a Hamas militant, or forced to stay by Hamas (so it’s Hamas who are responsible if they die)
It’s a fair assumption that anyone who left is never going to see their home again, unless Israel falls. Rest of the Arab world might hold Egypt partially liable for a new Nakba.
If sufficiently many leave, it would considerably advance the desired Israeli end state of a comfortable Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine, thus giving them impetus to formally annex it all and end the Palestinian dream for good.
Prohibiting the exit of Palestinian civilians from Gaza because keeping these civilians in Gaza limits Israel's scope of military operation seems consistent with Israel's complaints about the use of Palestinian "human shields."
It's hard for me to see the Arab world blaming Egypt for allowing refugees to exit a war zone. Many Palestinians were permitted to flee to Egypt in 1948. Does the Arab world hold Egypt partially liable for the original Nakba?
Is "a Jewish majority in the entire former Mandatory Palestine" really the "desired Israeli end state"?
I'm not saying it's necessarily the correct or the most ethical choice for Egyptians, I was just trying to explain that there's an internal logic to it.
It would have been quite hard to do so in a situation where Egypt, and other Arab countries, were actively fighting against Israel. OTOH in current day numerous Arabs inside and outside Egypt already see the Egyptian government as the pawn of Israel and the West.
I fail to see how it wouldn't be, especially for the Israeli Right, including Likud. They consistently talk of "Judea and Samaria" as a part of the Land of Israel, they expand settlements, they consistently repudiate any sort of a Palestinian state, they of course will absolutely not give up the idea of Israel as a Jewish state - what sort of an other end goal would there be?
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