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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   31833 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #2

This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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I'll abuse the "related geopolitics" rule and ask:

Let's imagine you're Vladimir Putin and you learn that the US and the EU will stop sending arms to Ukraine and concentrate on Israel for the next few years. Zelensky knows that as well and starts testing the idea of peace negotiations. How much do you demand?

On the one hand, any agreement that is not enforced by boots on the ground is worthless, so asking for no NATO, no anti-Russian censorship, no rehabilitation of WWII collaborators is useless. On the other hand, if you ask for additional territorial concessions, you'll get to pacify many more people that hate your guts, plus the ZSU can go molon lave while they still have materiel and force you to actually come and take it.

So, how much is not too much?

Too much blood has been spilled. Anything short of full liberation of Ukraine will mean the end of Zelensky (and I don't mean only political). And Putin has to deliver substantial victory to justify the economic pain.

For Zelensky to sit on the table means he has to be losing and hard. But in that case why bother for Putin?

But in that case why bother for Putin?

So, the whole Ukraine, all the way to Poland? Not even a puppet rump state?

There will be a puppet state ofc. More like - if Zelensky is ready to sit on the table for negotiations the unconditional surrender is not far away.

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