naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
When The Times’s Israel correspondent Isabel Kershner recently asked an Israeli Army tank driver, Shai Levy, 37, to describe the purpose of the looming Israeli invasion of Gaza, he said something that really caught my ear. It was “to restore honor to Israel,” he said.
All these Islamist/jihadist movements — the Taliban, Hamas, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthis — have deep cultural, social, religious and political roots in their societies. And they have access to endless supplies of humiliated young men, many of whom have never been in a job, power or a romantic relationship: a lethal combination that makes them easy to mobilize for mayhem.
And that’s why, to this day, none of these movements have been eliminated once and for all. They can, though, be isolated, diminished, delegitimized and decapitated — as America has done with ISIS and Al Qaeda. But that requires patience, precision, lots of allies and alternatives that have legitimacy within the societies from which these young men emerge.
Perhaps the greatest political challenge is what to do with surplus young men. It is this group that lies behind most terrorism, ISIS, inceldom, much of the dissident right, most challenges with policing and crime. Rich countries have more options than poorer ones, as do countries with lower birthrates compared to higher ones (due to reductions in the proportion of violent, dispossessed young men as a percentage of the total population).
none of these movements have been eliminated once and for all
Looking outside Muslim communities, Tamil terror in Sri Lanka was successfully eradicated through incredible violence. Unfortunately, this article might be right. Because the Sinhalese killed all the next-of-kin of the LTTE leadership. Left no room for revenge.
alternatives that have legitimacy within the societies from which these young men emerge.
This is why the rapid liberalization of Saudi society is so important. Iran can try as much as it likes, but Sunnis will always bear resentment towards them as Shias. If Mecca/Medina becomes westernized, then these men will finally have internal leaders with legitimacy who can steer these young men away.
humiliated young men
El salvador has managed to lock up 100k men almost overnight. So it can be done. It seems like the most achievable peaceful resolution to this war. Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. Let the absolute gravy-train of aid flow into restoring society for women and young children. Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip. Ideally on a patch of land in west bank, but that's unlikely to work.
You can release the once angry youth back into society once peace has been restored over 20 years or so. Once stable society exists and the majority has known an improving life for the last couple of decades, the residents lose the appetite for violence. Most non-murderous Tamil, Sikh and Naga insurgents in India were happy to integrate into India when it became clear that they can still wield local power in a democracy without violence. But maybe Islam draws out a different kind of anger.
An ugly solution, but somehow still sounds better than all the other alternatives.
Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. … Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip.
You understand that this “peaceful resolution” is just isomorphic to war, right?
If you want to put all the young men in prison, then someone has to go round them up. By force.
Obviously, Hamas wouldn’t agree to this voluntarily.
A peaceful resolution is more so the "least violent" resolution than one that has no deaths. Mine is a fairly violent suggestion .... but still less violent than all the other options on the table. A temporary ceasefire might delay the violence, but it can't be called a resolution.
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Notes -
[NYTimes, Friedman] Why a Gaza Invasion and ‘Once and for All’ Thinking Are Wrong for Israel
Perhaps the greatest political challenge is what to do with surplus young men. It is this group that lies behind most terrorism, ISIS, inceldom, much of the dissident right, most challenges with policing and crime. Rich countries have more options than poorer ones, as do countries with lower birthrates compared to higher ones (due to reductions in the proportion of violent, dispossessed young men as a percentage of the total population).
Looking outside Muslim communities, Tamil terror in Sri Lanka was successfully eradicated through incredible violence. Unfortunately, this article might be right. Because the Sinhalese killed all the next-of-kin of the LTTE leadership. Left no room for revenge.
This is why the rapid liberalization of Saudi society is so important. Iran can try as much as it likes, but Sunnis will always bear resentment towards them as Shias. If Mecca/Medina becomes westernized, then these men will finally have internal leaders with legitimacy who can steer these young men away.
El salvador has managed to lock up 100k men almost overnight. So it can be done. It seems like the most achievable peaceful resolution to this war. Kill the terrorists and imprison all young and likely suspects. Let the absolute gravy-train of aid flow into restoring society for women and young children. Employ all older men with families in hard labor towards rebuilding Gaza on the south side of the strip. Ideally on a patch of land in west bank, but that's unlikely to work.
You can release the once angry youth back into society once peace has been restored over 20 years or so. Once stable society exists and the majority has known an improving life for the last couple of decades, the residents lose the appetite for violence. Most non-murderous Tamil, Sikh and Naga insurgents in India were happy to integrate into India when it became clear that they can still wield local power in a democracy without violence. But maybe Islam draws out a different kind of anger.
An ugly solution, but somehow still sounds better than all the other alternatives.
You understand that this “peaceful resolution” is just isomorphic to war, right?
If you want to put all the young men in prison, then someone has to go round them up. By force.
Obviously, Hamas wouldn’t agree to this voluntarily.
Yep, fully agree.
A peaceful resolution is more so the "least violent" resolution than one that has no deaths. Mine is a fairly violent suggestion .... but still less violent than all the other options on the table. A temporary ceasefire might delay the violence, but it can't be called a resolution.
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