naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
An 80-year-old Israeli-American and her 13-year-old granddaughter, who were both kidnapped by Hamas militants from their kibbutz on October 7, have been found dead, the family told CNN on Thursday.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the deaths of Carmela Dan and Noya Dan to family on Wednesday, according to Jason Greenberg, a relative who lives in Massachusetts.
“Their bodies are being returned to their families for burial at this moment,” he said.
Carmela Dan had Israeli, US and French citizenship. Her granddaughter, Noya Dan, was an Israeli citizen.
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
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Notes -
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
Here is a list of the hostages from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
Two days ago I gave decent odds that a majority are already dead, and the 'perfidious hospital attack killing hundreds of children' will have if anything made that estimate too optimistic.
There has been some escapees, although I won't expect many (and maybe not any) more, and there might be a couple successful hostage negotiations eventually, but it's really difficult to come up with an optimistic number. Kinetic efforts are hard in the best of circumstances and Hamas has turned preventing them into a science, there's not much Hamas can ask for that the IDF is willing to give, no way the IDF can trust Hamas to turn over hostages with a deal, and the rest of the Gazan populace doesn't really have much of a hope of changing any of those calculations.
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