naraburns nihil supernum
7mo ago
(text post)
29943 thread views
Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
That the IDF released audio of Hamas operatives saying it was from Islamic Jihad, but the audio is clearly faked with bad Palestinian accents and crappy acting. Why do you think the IDF would release obviously doctored audio? Stupidity thinking that no one would call them on it? Rationally making the calculation their supporters would eat it up and it won't make their detractors any angrier than they are? That maybe it isn't actually faked and some Hamas operatives actually do just talk like that? But even to me, I don't speak a lick of Arabic, the tone of voices does sound like script reading and it felt very convenient how they described so much incriminating and explanatory information in a minute of conversation, like exposition from the beginning of a bad movie. Thoughts?
I mean… I’m not going to say it’s impossible that it’s a fake. Getting some of the Arabic blokes in the office to VA your intelligence transcript seems like the kind of unforced error that could happen when you are scrambling to regain control of the narrative. Though it would be such a stupid mistake that I still wouldn’t think it likely.
But the people who are shouting that this is an ‘obvious fake’ are the same people who only yesterday were telling me that this couldn’t possibly have been a Palestinian missile because it whistled like a JDAM, or that there were no rockets in the Palestinian armoury that could have done this, or that Gazan Ministry of Health death tolls are historically very accurate. Every claim so far that supports the Palestinian narrative has been easily falsified or just outright nonsense. And now I’m being told that this is an obvious fake, and it’s all a big IDF coverup, but this time I can’t make my own judgements because I don’t speak the language. And so I guess I’m supposed to take it on trust that this really is an obvious fake?
Sorry, no. When it comes to this incident, the pro-Palestinian side have been throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks and I’ll be damned if I’m gonna give them a free win. So for now I’m going to wait and see how this shakes out, with a very high prior that this is all just the latest round of BS peddled by pro-Palestinian journos who mistake their shower thoughts for hard-hitting journalistic analysis.
So, I mostly agree with you - I wouldn't expect IDF to manufacture evidence, either (that's the sort of thing that plays right into their detractors' hands). But it's weird how on-the-nose the dialogue is. "Oh gosh, we're the ones that bombed the hospital, oh no." We can put aside that I wouldn't expect these people to even admit to themselves that it wasn't Israel's fault. I expect real intelligence in the real world to be noisy and full of irrelevancies and requiring expert analysis to even figure out its implications. Recording a straightforward admission like this would be hitting the covert-ops jackpot.
This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a
court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to
optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.
The weekly Culture War threads host the most
controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are
appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy;
if in doubt, post!
Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts.
You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.
Why are you called The Motte?
A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently,
it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey",
originally identified by
philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial
but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens
this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for
the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired
propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."
On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.
New post guidelines
If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it.
A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts
such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a
submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).
Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or
significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
In regards to the recent hospital explosion, it's looking increasingly likely that Israel did not cause the explosion.
https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp
I saw this however on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/alextomo/status/1714670858914894046?t=UcPxGEUM5ShnUpc8Hav3Vw&s=19
https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714548529538953637?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1714548529538953637%7Ctwgr%5E4bbaa419eb9133e336435eb810800500af090537%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.hindustantimes.com%2Fworld-news%2Fidf-shares-audio-of-hamas-allegedly-talking-about-rocket-that-hit-gaza-hospital-it-misfired-101697630817752.html
That the IDF released audio of Hamas operatives saying it was from Islamic Jihad, but the audio is clearly faked with bad Palestinian accents and crappy acting. Why do you think the IDF would release obviously doctored audio? Stupidity thinking that no one would call them on it? Rationally making the calculation their supporters would eat it up and it won't make their detractors any angrier than they are? That maybe it isn't actually faked and some Hamas operatives actually do just talk like that? But even to me, I don't speak a lick of Arabic, the tone of voices does sound like script reading and it felt very convenient how they described so much incriminating and explanatory information in a minute of conversation, like exposition from the beginning of a bad movie. Thoughts?
I mean… I’m not going to say it’s impossible that it’s a fake. Getting some of the Arabic blokes in the office to VA your intelligence transcript seems like the kind of unforced error that could happen when you are scrambling to regain control of the narrative. Though it would be such a stupid mistake that I still wouldn’t think it likely.
But the people who are shouting that this is an ‘obvious fake’ are the same people who only yesterday were telling me that this couldn’t possibly have been a Palestinian missile because it whistled like a JDAM, or that there were no rockets in the Palestinian armoury that could have done this, or that Gazan Ministry of Health death tolls are historically very accurate. Every claim so far that supports the Palestinian narrative has been easily falsified or just outright nonsense. And now I’m being told that this is an obvious fake, and it’s all a big IDF coverup, but this time I can’t make my own judgements because I don’t speak the language. And so I guess I’m supposed to take it on trust that this really is an obvious fake?
Sorry, no. When it comes to this incident, the pro-Palestinian side have been throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks and I’ll be damned if I’m gonna give them a free win. So for now I’m going to wait and see how this shakes out, with a very high prior that this is all just the latest round of BS peddled by pro-Palestinian journos who mistake their shower thoughts for hard-hitting journalistic analysis.
So, I mostly agree with you - I wouldn't expect IDF to manufacture evidence, either (that's the sort of thing that plays right into their detractors' hands). But it's weird how on-the-nose the dialogue is. "Oh gosh, we're the ones that bombed the hospital, oh no." We can put aside that I wouldn't expect these people to even admit to themselves that it wasn't Israel's fault. I expect real intelligence in the real world to be noisy and full of irrelevancies and requiring expert analysis to even figure out its implications. Recording a straightforward admission like this would be hitting the covert-ops jackpot.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link