naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
(text post)
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
How is it safe for Biden to visit Israel with a war raging next door? Like he’s got what, 100 secret service with him at a given time? Or maybe it’s even 500, I dunno. But I assume he’s not bringing tanks, mounted guns, and all that good stuff.
What is stopping like Hamas/Iran/Al Qaeda from saying “here’s our chance” and throwing everything last thing they’ve got and going after him? Is it just the host county, Israel in this case, is responsible for security, and must I assume go to great lengths with a US president in town?
orthoxerox
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Jim 2yr ago
This is putting me on every list, but the best way to destroy AF1 would be to shoot it down when it's taking off. The plane is slow, carrying lots of fuel, a crash landing will probably result in a massive fire. The biggest problem is sneaking multiple MANPADs close enough to whatever Israeli military base AF1 takes off from.
If you have to attack from outside Israel, you need something like S-300. We know even a smaller SAM like Buk can shoot down passenger jets at cruising altitude, but I would expect its missile to be intercepted. Two problems: Israeli air defence is state of the art, so they can probably intercept even an S-300 missile; Hamas doesn't have an S-300 launcher andnever will. Iran and Syria do, so Hezbollah could theoretically be given one, but hiding a convoy of large military trucks from Israel in South Lebanon is practically impossible.
Catching Biden on the ground is possible if you know there's some outdoor ceremony planned. A 2B9 automatic mortar can be set up 4km away from the target, but again, there are multiple issues with this plan. It's not man-portable, so you need to sneak it in a truck and set it up in someone's courtyard. Not easy when we're talking about Israel. You can rig a loading system to sustain that 100 round per minute firing speed and dumb mortars can't be intercepted or jammed like drones or guided munitions, but it's not accurate without a forward observer, which is not possible here. Iron Dome/Beam won't be able to intercept several dozen mortars that you can lob before the first one is spotted, but you're likely to miss the POTUS altogether.
Iran and Syria do, so Hezbollah could theoretically be given one, but hiding a convoy of large military trucks from Israel in South Lebanon is practically impossible.
Hezbollah is also not insane; if they intervene it’ll probably be direct strikes against Israel and not assassinating the leader of a theoretically neutral country with 100 warplanes parked directly off the coast of their territory.
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Notes -
How is it safe for Biden to visit Israel with a war raging next door? Like he’s got what, 100 secret service with him at a given time? Or maybe it’s even 500, I dunno. But I assume he’s not bringing tanks, mounted guns, and all that good stuff.
What is stopping like Hamas/Iran/Al Qaeda from saying “here’s our chance” and throwing everything last thing they’ve got and going after him? Is it just the host county, Israel in this case, is responsible for security, and must I assume go to great lengths with a US president in town?
This is putting me on every list, but the best way to destroy AF1 would be to shoot it down when it's taking off. The plane is slow, carrying lots of fuel, a crash landing will probably result in a massive fire. The biggest problem is sneaking multiple MANPADs close enough to whatever Israeli military base AF1 takes off from.
If you have to attack from outside Israel, you need something like S-300. We know even a smaller SAM like Buk can shoot down passenger jets at cruising altitude, but I would expect its missile to be intercepted. Two problems: Israeli air defence is state of the art, so they can probably intercept even an S-300 missile; Hamas doesn't have an S-300 launcher andnever will. Iran and Syria do, so Hezbollah could theoretically be given one, but hiding a convoy of large military trucks from Israel in South Lebanon is practically impossible.
Catching Biden on the ground is possible if you know there's some outdoor ceremony planned. A 2B9 automatic mortar can be set up 4km away from the target, but again, there are multiple issues with this plan. It's not man-portable, so you need to sneak it in a truck and set it up in someone's courtyard. Not easy when we're talking about Israel. You can rig a loading system to sustain that 100 round per minute firing speed and dumb mortars can't be intercepted or jammed like drones or guided munitions, but it's not accurate without a forward observer, which is not possible here. Iron Dome/Beam won't be able to intercept several dozen mortars that you can lob before the first one is spotted, but you're likely to miss the POTUS altogether.
Hezbollah is also not insane; if they intervene it’ll probably be direct strikes against Israel and not assassinating the leader of a theoretically neutral country with 100 warplanes parked directly off the coast of their territory.
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