naraburns nihil supernum
6mo ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Suppose you were a moderate leader of the Palestinians. What on Earth could you possibly do to end the suffering and negotiate a lasting peace?
Palestinians appear to feel very strongly about unrestricted right of return. In the failed Camp David talks, Arafat demanded 150,000 Palestinians in the diaspora be allowed to settle Israel per year while Israel pushed back and said 100,000 total, though they offered a $30 billion fund to help Palestinians abroad to attain permanent settlement abroad.
This is pretty far apart. Israel doesn’t want to be demographically obliterated but Palestinians that fled Israel consider it their ancestral home.
How do you reconcile this? Wouldn’t any Palestinian leader that negotiated a peace deal without this be considered illegitimate and probably marked for death?
On the other hand, would the hostilities even end if Israel somehow agreed to unrestricted ROR? There’s so much bad blood that even this is hard to imagine as being the thing that achieves lasting peace.
I’m not sure any concession short of Israel packs up and leaves forever would end the violence.
Is it wrong to demand that Israelis relocate to Florida? It’s not like they can’t move all of their holy buildings. Surely the terra itself isn’t sacred?
If I were the czar of Gaza, I would declare an independent state which in theory includes Judea and Samaria but in practice encompasses only Gaza. I would build up the economy, utilize foreign aid for the benefit of my citizens, absolutely forbid any violence towards Israel.
In 5-10 years, when things start to improve, I would use diplomatic means and international pressure on Israel to gain control of Oslo A territories in Judea and Samaria (but not B and C), instead of Fatah. There I could build an even stronger economy, again ruthlessly putting down any violence against Israel. At this point I have a state. I negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to allow independent travel between Samaria and Gaza. I’ve already been recognized in the 80’s, so I don’t need to jump that hurdle. I will now solve the refugee crisis by bringing back every descendant of ‘48 to my new state. We are now a thriving state, leaning heavily on international aid and tourism but not blockaded.
This is the hard part, since Israel might interfere from here on out, but I will draw the optimistic scenario. I demand that Israel complies with Oslo, as I have, and gain civil control of Oslo B territories. From here I will use more diplomacy and world pressure to finalize my borders, roughly drawing on the ‘48 armistice line but NOT adhering strictly to it, since it’s mostly meaningless. I offer the settlers in area C citizenship in my country, and since I have shown no violence towards them they might actually accept. We now live in peace. I win.
Isn’t this the “miracle happens” part? Aren’t the extremists going to question whose side you’re truly on? Won’t you be marginalized or assassinated as more moderate Palestinian leaders have been?
assume last paragraph is a joke
Not actually. It may be less detached from reality than expecting Palestinians to stop doing violence to Israel over the next 100 years.
It’s not “miracle happens” so much as “violence happens”. If I’m a leader in Gaza then I get to do that. If I can’t do that then what’s the point if the exercise? Just to prove that Gaza’s culture is irredeemable?
Your last paragraph is ridiculous on so many levels. Maybe least of which is that you think it’s possible to send the Temple Mount and Cave of the Patriarch anywhere. I agree it’s ridiculous to expect the Arabs to change, by the way, which is why they must go.
FWIW I like your answer a lot and I don’t think preventing violence against Israel would be unattainable for a Gazan leader with a strong enough power base. I’m thinking here of Kadyrov in Chechnya. You’d want to start by finding a smart powerful and mercenary figure within Hamas. Give them enough money to build up their power base, bribe minor players, have major rivals killed. Give them weapons and allow them to build a Praetorian Guard of elite Hamas fighters who live like kings and get all the chicks. Develop very strict internal messaging norms around Israel and violence — general calls for a unified Palestine one day are fine, but no direct exhortations to violence. Make it so that anyone who fucks with you ends up dead, and anyone who works with you gets money and women.
This shouldn’t be politically impossible. Everyone is responsive to multiple social incentives and these in turn can be influenced with money. It will just take a lot of time, money, and finding the right people.
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Notes -
Suppose you were a moderate leader of the Palestinians. What on Earth could you possibly do to end the suffering and negotiate a lasting peace?
Palestinians appear to feel very strongly about unrestricted right of return. In the failed Camp David talks, Arafat demanded 150,000 Palestinians in the diaspora be allowed to settle Israel per year while Israel pushed back and said 100,000 total, though they offered a $30 billion fund to help Palestinians abroad to attain permanent settlement abroad.
This is pretty far apart. Israel doesn’t want to be demographically obliterated but Palestinians that fled Israel consider it their ancestral home.
How do you reconcile this? Wouldn’t any Palestinian leader that negotiated a peace deal without this be considered illegitimate and probably marked for death?
On the other hand, would the hostilities even end if Israel somehow agreed to unrestricted ROR? There’s so much bad blood that even this is hard to imagine as being the thing that achieves lasting peace.
I’m not sure any concession short of Israel packs up and leaves forever would end the violence.
Is it wrong to demand that Israelis relocate to Florida? It’s not like they can’t move all of their holy buildings. Surely the terra itself isn’t sacred?
If I were the czar of Gaza, I would declare an independent state which in theory includes Judea and Samaria but in practice encompasses only Gaza. I would build up the economy, utilize foreign aid for the benefit of my citizens, absolutely forbid any violence towards Israel.
In 5-10 years, when things start to improve, I would use diplomatic means and international pressure on Israel to gain control of Oslo A territories in Judea and Samaria (but not B and C), instead of Fatah. There I could build an even stronger economy, again ruthlessly putting down any violence against Israel. At this point I have a state. I negotiate with Jordan and Egypt to allow independent travel between Samaria and Gaza. I’ve already been recognized in the 80’s, so I don’t need to jump that hurdle. I will now solve the refugee crisis by bringing back every descendant of ‘48 to my new state. We are now a thriving state, leaning heavily on international aid and tourism but not blockaded.
This is the hard part, since Israel might interfere from here on out, but I will draw the optimistic scenario. I demand that Israel complies with Oslo, as I have, and gain civil control of Oslo B territories. From here I will use more diplomacy and world pressure to finalize my borders, roughly drawing on the ‘48 armistice line but NOT adhering strictly to it, since it’s mostly meaningless. I offer the settlers in area C citizenship in my country, and since I have shown no violence towards them they might actually accept. We now live in peace. I win.
Edit: I assume your last paragraph is a joke.
Isn’t this the “miracle happens” part? Aren’t the extremists going to question whose side you’re truly on? Won’t you be marginalized or assassinated as more moderate Palestinian leaders have been?
Not actually. It may be less detached from reality than expecting Palestinians to stop doing violence to Israel over the next 100 years.
It’s not “miracle happens” so much as “violence happens”. If I’m a leader in Gaza then I get to do that. If I can’t do that then what’s the point if the exercise? Just to prove that Gaza’s culture is irredeemable?
Your last paragraph is ridiculous on so many levels. Maybe least of which is that you think it’s possible to send the Temple Mount and Cave of the Patriarch anywhere. I agree it’s ridiculous to expect the Arabs to change, by the way, which is why they must go.
FWIW I like your answer a lot and I don’t think preventing violence against Israel would be unattainable for a Gazan leader with a strong enough power base. I’m thinking here of Kadyrov in Chechnya. You’d want to start by finding a smart powerful and mercenary figure within Hamas. Give them enough money to build up their power base, bribe minor players, have major rivals killed. Give them weapons and allow them to build a Praetorian Guard of elite Hamas fighters who live like kings and get all the chicks. Develop very strict internal messaging norms around Israel and violence — general calls for a unified Palestine one day are fine, but no direct exhortations to violence. Make it so that anyone who fucks with you ends up dead, and anyone who works with you gets money and women.
This shouldn’t be politically impossible. Everyone is responsive to multiple social incentives and these in turn can be influenced with money. It will just take a lot of time, money, and finding the right people.
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