naraburns nihil supernum
2yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
An 80-year-old Israeli-American and her 13-year-old granddaughter, who were both kidnapped by Hamas militants from their kibbutz on October 7, have been found dead, the family told CNN on Thursday.
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed the deaths of Carmela Dan and Noya Dan to family on Wednesday, according to Jason Greenberg, a relative who lives in Massachusetts.
“Their bodies are being returned to their families for burial at this moment,” he said.
Carmela Dan had Israeli, US and French citizenship. Her granddaughter, Noya Dan, was an Israeli citizen.
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
As of 14 February 2024, 112 hostages had been returned alive to Israel, with 105 being released in a prisoner exchange deal, four released by Hamas unilaterally and three rescued by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Twelve bodies of hostages were repatriated to Israel, with three of the hostages killed by friendly fire from the IDF[22] and the bodies of nine hostages repatriated through military operations. 49 hostages were reportedly killed on October 7 or in Hamas captivity according to Israel. According to unconfirmed Israeli intelligence, at least 20 additional hostages may be deceased, with their bodies being held captive in Gaza. As of 3 May 2024, 132 hostages remained in captivity in the Gaza Strip, 128 of whom had been abducted on 7 October 2023; the other four hostages having been captured earlier.
About 130 hostages remain unaccounted for after being kidnapped by Hamas on 7 October last year - at least 34 of them are presumed dead. According to Israel, more than 250 Israelis and foreigners were taken during the attacks. Israel gives an official figure of 134 hostages because it includes four people taken hostage in 2014 and 2015. Two of these are believed to have died.
My sad working theory has been that one reason talks were stalled was that a deal would force Hamas to reveal that most of the hostages were either dead or pregnant. Now this: AFAIK, there are still ca 125 hostages in Gaza, and Hamas can't produce 33 who are still alive?
So more than I feared, less than I hoped, and it's become increasingly possible to say publicly among mainstream sources that it's probably not gonna look better.
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Notes -
What are the chances of any of the hostages coming home? I just saw this on CNN (it won't let me link the article since it's a stream of updates):
Here is a list of the hostages from BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011
There are lots of children (young as 3), women, and elderly people. I would be shocked if more than a few of these people are alive by the end of this conflict.
Six months update:
So more than I feared, less than I hoped, and it's become increasingly possible to say publicly among mainstream sources that it's probably not gonna look better.
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