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Notes -
Saw a point on twitter that the administration openly likening right wingers to terrorists and to order Federal Investigations into right-leaning groups and of course the ongoing attempt to paint all conservatives as Nazis is only going to make it harder to detect GOP voters in the polls. You can't simultaneously threaten to bring state power to bear on your political foes and expect normal people to be willing to openly admit to being your political foe.
Nate Silver seems to doubt this is even a phenomenon and argues it wouldn't be in play this year for various reasons.
This strikes me as naive. Polarization has gotten worse, not better. If there was a 'shy Trump voter' effect when Trump was in office what do we expect to happen when he's not in power and the guy in power is actively prosecuting Trump supporters?
People who were already reluctant to admit to a Trump vote are now going to be even less likely to admit to ANY Republican vote at all, no? Of course, not having Trump on the ballot might depress turnout unless he comes out strong in favor of voting GOP.
My bet is on the GOP overperforming polls, although it will depend more than anything on the economic state of the country around voting time.
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