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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 19, 2022

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But you might ask, at what point does this Pollyanna-Putin outlook begin to crumble? When does the filter bubble burst, and Putin has his Downfall-style meltdown? When Ukraine liberates Kherson? Lysychansk? Donetsk? Sevastopol? I think the only answer we can give here is that people in general are very bad at facing up to uncomfortable realities, and can keep themselves from accepting painful truths for their entire lives if necessary. Or think of psychologist's Leon Festinger's now famous work on cognitive dissonance on doomsday cults: when the doomsday prophecy fails, people will go to great lengths to avoid accepting that they've been duped. I expect Putin to go out the same way, with his final thoughts being confidence that Russia can still be victorious, even as he has an unfortunate fall from a window.

I don't find this kind of psychological analysis to be that convincing. It's compelling to imagine Putin ranting at his generals in some palace and to pull out all sorts of diagnoses - he's a megalomaniac, he's a psychopath, he's delusional, he's paranoid, etc. But these kinds of assertions are made without evidence, and are constructed to support desired conclusions. The claim that Putin is insane or Hitleresque is made to justify war with Russia, and what Americans think of as the good kind of war - total war that doesn't stop until the entire country and government is destroyed. It is made to rule out the possibility of negotiation or normalizing relations.

In any case, Putin's interior psychology is not really that important. Russia is in a very bad place right now, but they really have no choice but to continue to believe that victory is possible. People can believe anything if they have to!