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Notes -
There's an idea that I've been considering for a while, a partial explanation of the origins of Blue-Tribe and Red-Tribe as political forces, and I'd appreciate thoughts.
tl;dr: Blue-Tribe gains status with better communication tools, Red-Tribe gains status with hierarchical structure and industrialization. These groups have relatively consistent social and political beliefs, and attempt to use their status to structure society according to their predispositions.
Moderately expanded:
Abrahamic religion comes along ~2000 years ago and upends the social landscape. Importantly, the new religion provides new benchmarks for which to assess individuals, and therefore disproportionally raises the status of individuals with behaviours that best fit the religious structure. Specifically, individuals high in conformism and/or rule-abiding behaviour. These become the new elite.
As Rome declines and the Catholic Church gains prominence there is again a redirection in the social landscape, this type disproportionally benefitting rule-abiding and hierarchical neurotypes above that of other religious types. We'll call this group the Conscientious, which roughly maps to the modern Red-Tribe. The religious subtype that is now playing a distant second fiddle, with an inability to enforce power across large geographical distances, we'll call the Conformists, roughly mapping to the modern Blue-Tribe.
Western society trods along for around 1000 years with the Conscientious as the clear dominant neurotype. But the printing press is then introduced, a technology that overwhelmingly facilitates Conformist power above that of the Conscientious. Significant upheaval occurs as the two groups become roughly balanced in power.
The Conformist vs Conscientious struggle at this point is widely prevalent, becoming a primary axis for conflict. First it's Protestantism (Conformist) vs Catholicism (Conscientious), but then as Protestantism takes hold within Northern European nations and schisms occur people begin to self-select into denominations that favour their predispositions (e.g. Lutheranism overwhelmingly Conformist, Calvinism overwhelmingly Conscientious). Even as the explicit religions change, the general political and social tendencies remain consistent. Conformists favour abolition and liberalism, the Conscientious favour stringent sexual morality, and so on.
The printing press facilitates books, universities and the media, all heavily advantaging Conformists. But economic expansion also creates industrialization, which advantages the social status of the Conscientious. While other neurotypes continue to exist, the power of Conformist and Conscientious circles is so far above that of everyone else that even minor shifts in the balance of power have social ramifications. But for the most part the trend is clear, communication tools advance year over year, advantaging Conformists, with only relatively minor reversions due to periods of industrialization.
While Conformists attempted to maintain Conformity centered around the Bible, this increasingly became absurd as contradictions and inconsistencies are made apparent. A shift towards conforming around "reason" and scientific knowledge occurred, as the contradictions can be buried at a much deeper level. Conformists eventually become the modern agnostics and separate from Christianity. Protestant sects that remain are overwhelmingly Conscientious.
Over the last 50 years we have the trifecta of rapid advancement in communication tools, deindustrialization of the West, and (possibly as a consequence of the first two) a decline in religiosity. The decline in Conscientious power is so extensive that, as of the last few years, they no longer hold sufficient power and status to constitute a bloc in their own right, with a broad coalition of Anti-Conformism taking up the mantle as designated opposition.
And two final notes:
I recognize the label of "Conformist" is relatively derogatory, but for now it feels the most appropriate. I do not believe that a desire to conform is necessarily inherent within the broad collection of people that can be called 'Conformist' (although it certainly applies to a subset, there are factions even with Conformists), but rather the general appreciation for debate and argument forces individuals to use a common set of axioms, which as a byproduct causes thoughts and beliefs to converge. (I could write quite a bit on the irony of debate causing a convergence of axiomatic beliefs, but I'm unsure if its been done)
Even to the extent this whole concept may be true, it is only one axis among many.
This is first time I've attempted to organize my thoughts on this, so I apologize if it's rough or if the formatting is a pain.
Not sure I follow the lineage you trace back to the birth of Abrahamic religion, or the Conformist/Conscientious mapping.
However, I think this
fits in broadly with the existing data on how income and educational attainment impacts support for the left today (see the attached image).
I think historically, we can see this conflict play out repeatedly. Power concentrates around the ability to have a monopoly on force (princes, kings, the state) or resources (early agriculturalists, medieval landowners/ merchants, and modern industrialists). It seems the red tribe today has its basis in many local businesses (small monopolies), that don’t require much education to run. Think of a local landscaping business or car dealership.
Subverting power requires coordinated action. A religion in one respect is an early broadcasting system, as people carry its message with them when they travel. Particularly, Christianity can be thought of as communicating ideas about how to individualize. More individualized persons in society is important because generally they are more productive, but more importantly for subverting power, they will put pressure on existing elites to push society towards equality (Peter Turchin’s theory of elite overproduction and conflict comes to mind here).
I think the modern blue tribe has its roots in the church and its role as counterweight to kings. The modern blue tribe is made up of high education/low income voters. Where might you find these people? I think most commonly, within our communication structures, particularly academia and media. The manufacturing of ideas and control of the spotlight can act as a counterweight to power by coordinating action amongst the masses. The people who get to do this are awarded high status and get to mingle with those with high income. However, they do not make high incomes because there’s no way for them to monopolize or own their influence (though the rising creator economy may change this dynamic).
/images/1663873426410395.webp
Yeah its clear I need to clean up my explanation. My original point with it is that Abrahamic religion provided a societal structure that significantly advantaged 'The Religious Type' (of which Conformists and the Conscientious are the two major components), who then built institutions according to their dispositions; the church, the legal system and education being heavily Conscientious, academia and the media being heavily Conformist. But I got distracted going over the history, and left out the explanation of its importance.
It's hard for me to say just because I don't know as much about the church in its role as counterweight, I know much more about the enlightenment era, but opposing a heavily conscientious institution in the monarchy would certainly fit the pattern.
While I agree that Blue Tribe served as a very significant counterweight between the 16th and 20th centuries, I would disagree that being a counterweight is inherent to their structure, despite their constant efforts to frame themselves as such. While they certainly acted as a counterweight when one was needed, the media and academia both hold significant amounts of inherent power and today they are the thing that must be counterweighed.
True, partially, yes, with the exception of academics. The capture of rents from "science" and upper-education constitutes a sizable jobs program.
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