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Notes -
Housing market predictions anyone?
As a couple we are at a point where we would be given a mortgage of a small size house in the city or a somewhat larger one in a suburb (this is a very expensive Western European capital and collectively we earn upper middle class salary). But the prices are so crazy that whatever we buy would definitely not be enough to raise a decent size family as long as we stay in range for our jobs.
The obvious plan would be to get a mid sized place now and then sell and upgrade to a larger house in 5-10 years.
I am very paranoid that the current prices are a massive bubble and if we get a loan today we will be left holding a massive bag when the prices crash and we won’t be able to meaningfully upgrade to a larger house. But on the other hand throwing a large fraction of our income down the toilet with the rent feels ridiculous when we can afford not to.
My prediction is that there is no giant bubble waiting to pop, that the 40% runup in money supply had to go somewhere, and that housing was a logical place for people to put money. The high interest rates might turn back the highest of the prices, but I would not generally expect a return to 2019 pricing.
If I knew I intended to stay in a given area for 5+ years, I would just deal with the pricing being what it is and hope to refi for lower rates in a few years.
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