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Soriek  5mo ago (text post)   1813 thread views

Transnational Thanksgiving (comes one day early)

Posting this a day early because I won’t be around tomorrow.

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US and China

Presidents Biden and Xi Jinping finally sat down and had their summit. Opposition to Chinese interests has been one of the few things there’s bipartisan collaboration on in the American government (See: the CHIPS Act) but the US is also stretched thin with conflicts in Europe and the Middle East and has no interest in dealing with yet another boondoggle in East Asia. China, on their end, has been dealing with enough economic wonkiness that they probably also don’t want another conflict to deal with as well. Some people argue that a nationalist maneuver towards Taiwan could hypothetically distract the population from their present woes, but I would be pretty shocked if China did anything aggressive, especially without waiting to see if a more pro-Chinese candidate like Terry Gou wins in the Taiwanese elections.

So both leaders have populations opposed to each other while also having enough problems that they don’t want any more. What was accomplished from their meeting? Probably nothing very definitive, but hopefully reopening dialogue will help avoid future conflict. From the White House brief:

The two leaders made progress on a number of key issues. They welcomed the resumption of bilateral cooperation to combat global illicit drug manufacturing and trafficking, including synthetic drugs like fentanyl, and establishment of a working group for ongoing communication and law enforcement coordination on counternarcotics issues.

The two leaders welcomed the resumption of high-level military-to-military communication, as well as the U.S.-China Defense Policy Coordination Talks and the U.S.-China Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings. Both sides are also resuming telephone conversations between theater commanders.

The leaders affirmed the need to address the risks of advanced AI systems and improve AI safety through U.S.-China government talks.

The two leaders exchanged views on key regional and global challenges. President Biden underscored the United States’ support for a free and open Indo-Pacific that is connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient. The President reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to defending our Indo-Pacific allies. The President emphasized the United States’ enduring commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight, adherence to international law, maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Working together on fentanyl is (in my opinion) they must substantive thing to come out of the talks, hopefully we will see more concrete measures being clarified in the future. Military communications actually haven’t been cut off for that long, only since Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan the previous year, but restoring them is a good sign, especially for preventing potential flare ups in the South China Sea.

"Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed," Xi told Biden as they and their delegations sat across from each other at a long table in an ornate conference room…

"For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option," he said. "It is unrealistic for one side to remodel the other."

Some people argue that a nationalist maneuver towards Taiwan could hypothetically distract the population from their present woes, but I would be pretty shocked if China did anything aggressive, especially without waiting to see if a more pro-Chinese candidate like Terry Gou wins in the Taiwanese elections.

Yeah, even the invasion doomers say that they'll wait for the Taiwanese elections (for casus belli) and for the US election campaign to get in full swing (for opportunity). Besides, April and October are the best months to launch an invasion, so for this year we're basically safe.

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