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Notes -
Since @greyenlightenment suggested a list of topics that weren't getting enough attention in the previous CWR thread, I decided to write a bit about Russia-Ukraine situation.
The summer campaign has ended, and Ukraine has found itself in an unenviable situation. The much-hyped counteroffensive has achieved only marginal gains, but the EU has exhausted its disposable stocks of arms and armor and the US, which has enough disposable firepower to zone rouge a medium-sized country, is a) not a charity and b) kinda getting busy with other stuff.
All this means Ukraine knows it won't be able to conduct further offensive operations and its most important medium-term goal is to not lose. There are multiple ways it can lose:
Having so many ways to lose means the time is ripe for a ceasefire or even peace negotiations, but when your adversary smells blood they won't be satisfied with just what they have. So Ukraine either:
One point that I think bears mentioning more often is that there is a back-channel game at play here: the US probably could fund or supply this war itself, but has been trying to pressure (Western) Europe into properly funding it's own defense.
There is that video of the Germans at the UN laughing at Trump suggesting their military expenditures were inadequate and that Russia was not to be trusted, but official statements about missing NATO GDP targets on defense spending have been going on for multiple administrations. Here is an easy chance for the EU to do so, and it's failing in a tragedy of the commons: Germany isn't likely to get invaded soon, so why should they pay for it instead of Poland?
Also worth mentioning is a political zeitgeist in which the EU has often historically protested American foreign policies (most notably the 2003 Iraq adventure, which I will concede probably deserved it, but also the presence of US troops in the EU, support of Israel, and a few other military activities like Libya), but also expected Team America, World Police to show up when war came to their doorstep. The US seems to be trying to balance its hardware support with a goal of getting the EU to pull it's share.
Let's be honest. Poland is not being invaded either, nor Romania or Bulgaria. Russia being a non nuclear threat for EU is pearl clutching or statesmen's equivalent of rape fantasy. Moldova maybe. But not west of there.
I think if I were the Baltic states, and I was depending exclusively on the EU (sans America) for protection, there would be some legitimate questions about whether German or Spanish troops were ready and willing to fight on our behalf, or whether we'd be ceded like Czechoslovakia in 1939 for "peace in our time" and continued natural gas to Germany (largely moot post 2022)? Would the French or British use nuclear weapons in our defense?
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