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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023

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Putin would have taken the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and incorporated them into Russia. Then he would sabre-rattle in the Balkans but do exactly nothing because the Balkans are part of NATO.

Then he would die of old age unlike the hundred thousands of young men who died horrible deaths in this war.

If there's one thing that this war has shown, it's that (a huge amount of) Russian-speaking Ukrainians do genuinely see themselves as Ukrainians, not Russians, and would prefer to live under Ukraine. After all, it's that constituency that, for the most part, is forming the refugee wave to the rest of Europe - the Facebook groups for Ukrainians in Finland have been full of "I just arrived from Donetsk... I came from Mariupol... Is it safe to return to Kharkiv?" and so on. As such, Ukraine would still be depopulated (anyone in the new border with Russia would have a good reason to leave on the assumption that Russia might want to grab more at any time), it would of course still be considerably weakened, and Western support or no Western support, the indications are that Ukrainians would have fought until loss and occupation, so you might still have hundreds of thousands of young men dying horrible deaths.

Of course, if Russians had managed to take huge regions with comparative ease in this war, it would have made it inevitable they would have then gone for other non-NATO areas of the former Soviet Union - formally incorporating Belarus, new wars with Moldova and Georgia, a bout with Kazakhstan - and would have then settled for waiting for NATO to disintegrate, probably aided by internal anger by countries like Poland over the "betrayal of Ukraine", to try to expand into Baltics (I assume this is what you mean by Balkans). Considerable destabilization in Eastern Europe in any case, huge loss of unity for the West as Russians demonstrate they can just roll over a Westernizing nation, a new legitimation of annexation as a political concept causing even more destabilization worldwide.

and would have then settled for waiting for NATO to disintegrate, probably aided by internal anger by countries like Poland over the "betrayal of Ukraine"

That's a pipe dream no matter how well the war went for Russia. Russia is weak. NATO is strong.

Nevertheless, I do think initial resistance to Russian invasion was good. There is simply a limit to how many lives I think should be wasted. That limit is far less than the > 200,000 that have already been wasted.

Putin attempted a decapitation strike against the Ukrainian government and plainly stated it is not a legitimate nation and is merely part of Russia.

Putin grows hungrier by the eating. I don't buy "if we just gave him a little and stop resisting so much Putin would stop".