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Notes -
The Colorado Supreme Court holds:
[recent related discussion, slightly older]
The Colorado Presidential Primary is scheduled for March 5th, for both parties. As the decision notes, January 4, 2024 is "the day before the Secretary’s deadline to certify the content of the presidential primary ballot)"; while the matter is open to further stay should federal courts intervene, such an intervention would itself determine at least the state presidential primary.
How are the procedural protections? From the dissent:
And the other dissent:
and
Did the Colorado Supreme Court provide a more serious and deep analysis of the First Amendment jurisprudence, at least?
There are interpretations here other than that of the Russell Conjugation: that stochastic terrorism is limited to this tiny portion of space, or perhaps that shucks there just hasn't ever been some opportunity to worry about it ever before and they're tots going to consistently apply this across the political spectrum in the future. They are not particularly persuasive to me, from this expert.
Perhaps more damning, this is what the majority found a useful one to highlight : a sociology professor who has been playing this tune since 2017.
If you put a gun to my head, I'd bet that this is overturned, or stayed until moot. But that's not a metaphor I pick from dissimilarity.
You miss a hundred percent of the shots you don't take. We're just warming up here, the election race has barely started! There's a whole year of this to go, and that's just until the election is "over".
Some obvious predictions:
Trump will be the Republican nominee.
Trump will not take office next year.
This will, again, be the "most secure election ever".
A year from now, public trust in the election, the courts, the media, the federal bureaucracy, and the federal government will be significantly lower than it is now. The pattern will hold for subsequent elections.
[EDIT] - To put it more plainly, the point of this isn't to keep Trump off the ballot. The point is that this is a way to hurt the outgroup without getting in too much trouble. If it actually keeps Trump off the ballot, fantastic. But the actual value is the incremental reduction in probability of an effective Trump administration, verses the predicted cost, which I'd imagine is perceived as negligible. What you are seeing here is Blue Tribe's institutional dedication to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. And why not? Look at all these free pennies!
Biden's poll numbers are shocking. I know: don't put too much faith in polls and it's pretty early to start counting. But, Biden's numbers are really shit. Trump might actually win.
That'll be a wild ride. But of course, many Democrats will work hard to """secure""" the election in a way that resembles a conspiracy between media organizations, federal law enforcement and major tech companies to prevent Trump from winning.
It is entirely possible that votes for Trump will be adjudicated invalid in multiple states.
It is entirely possible that the "controversy" over his eligibility will result in a significant shift in voter behavior against him.
It is entirely possible that he will be in jail come election day.
It is entirely possible that the "controversy" over whether he should or should not be in jail will result in a significant shift in voter behavior against him.
It is entirely possible that he will be murdered between now and election day.
Little things add up.
Agreed on all points. Something as little as poll numbers shifting in a few swing states as we approach the election will flip the results.
I'm just against people easily dismissing Trump having any chance of victory. If the election were held today and people voted strictly by poll approval ratings, Trump would probably win. I get that is not a very strong statement, but it isn't nothing. He's not obviously going to lose.
He has better odds than the election he won.
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