I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.
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Notes -
I mean, the EU doesn't really have to fear invasion absent the Pax; it's got more-than-sufficient firepower to stop Russia even on its own, and France has nukes. It's more "the world economy is now tits-up" that they've got to worry about.
This is in contrast to, for instance, Taiwan.
The EU does not have sufficient conventional firepower to stop Russia on its own, although Russia is probably capable of stopping Russia and France does have nukes(and Germany at least can get them before the Russian troops get through Poland).
The global economy might go tits up, but it also might strengthen the euro as people look for alternatives to the dollar, and IIRC European goods are the only real substitute for American ones. It’s not wildly implausible that after some temporary pain Europe winds up slightly better off- especially if the euro appreciates.
The bigger problem is shipping lanes, but A) France and Britain have large navies and can head up a coalition on their own and B) China wants to be able to ship goods to and from Europe and has motives to keep shipping lanes clear.
I think you made some sort of error here.
Nope, I'm referring to Russia's corruption and incompetence. A competently run Russia which prioritizes military capabilities over brown-nosing and graft would've already steamrolled Ukraine and be posing a serious threat to the European powers of NATO. Russia as it actually exists wouldn't be a real threat to NATO even with US withdrawal.
Ah, thanks for clarifying.
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