I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.
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Notes -
Adam Unikowsky has a very good article going through all the potential outcomes from the all-but-inevitable SCOTUS case reviewing this decision and helpfully assigning a subjective probability to each one. The numbers aren't important, but it's a useful exercise to consider the various options the justices will face and the consequences that will flow from whatever judgement is reached.
I think there will be less appetite than he suggests for a procedural dodge that doesn't resolve the core issues. There is a clear and compelling need right now for clarity that only the Supreme Court can provide, and I think a clear majority (maybe excepting Roberts) will accept that responsibility - and besides, all of the various available dodges are pretty ugly. Accordingly I put the chances of both a clear reversal and a clear affirmation higher than does.
I agree with him that the single most likely outcome is probably a reversal on the basis that Trump's behaviour did not constitute engaging in an insurrection. But I also think it's very possible that many of the Republican justices will be willing to sign on to the Baude/Paulson analysis in full. There's obviously instinctive resistance to the idea of going against public opinion, but logically any eligibility criteria is meant to be applied in the face of popular will - if they were not, then normal democratic processes would be enough.
The sky won't fall if Trump is found ineligible. We threw fifteen(!) politicians out of parliament because they were constitutionally ineligible a few years ago and while it caused a bit of drama, the world kept turning. Retaliatory actions may be attempted but they will need to get through the courts too, and if they do so successfully, they will be justified.
With all due respect to Australian democracy, were any of those 15 removed frontrunners to an election of the executive and/or leaders of the opposition?
As AshLael said, one was the leader of one of the parties in the ruling coalition.
The analogy is not very exact, though, because the results of the dismissals weren't "oh hey, your opponent wins by default", they were either "next person on your party ticket takes the seat" in the Senate cases, or "have a new election" in the HoR cases (and in all of the new elections the same party - and in some cases the same person, having resolved the eligibility problem in the meantime - won again and kept the seat). There were only two cases where the same party didn't hold the seat afterward, one because the guy was found to be eligible but resigned anyway, and one because the disqualified person had run as an independent and thus had no party.
This is very different from "a major party is not allowed to contest X position, opponent wins by default".
Should also be noted that the CW is significantly more subdued here in Oz.
That's not what is on the table. It perhaps feels that way to Trumpists, because Trumpism is populist movement and thus first and foremost a cult of personality.
Most of the time, even senior party figures are largely replaceable. If a couple of senior senators got disqualified from either party, people would care infinitely more about the replacement process than the people ejected (they're not even necessarily unpopular - as has often been noted, Congress has terrible approval but people like their guys - but their supporters just aren't attached enough to stand by them if they got into real hot water). In the case of Trump, his followers regard him as irreplaceable and are hostile to even considering alternatives. As such, the possibility that he performed some disqualifying act feels like total disenfranchisement even though the GOP still gets a nominee (who probably fares better) (plus the Supreme Court, ~half of Congress, half the state governments, etc...).
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