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zataomm  4mo ago (text post)   5353 thread views

Colorado Supreme Court Thread

Link to the decision

I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.

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Adam Unikowsky has a very good article going through all the potential outcomes from the all-but-inevitable SCOTUS case reviewing this decision and helpfully assigning a subjective probability to each one. The numbers aren't important, but it's a useful exercise to consider the various options the justices will face and the consequences that will flow from whatever judgement is reached.

I think there will be less appetite than he suggests for a procedural dodge that doesn't resolve the core issues. There is a clear and compelling need right now for clarity that only the Supreme Court can provide, and I think a clear majority (maybe excepting Roberts) will accept that responsibility - and besides, all of the various available dodges are pretty ugly. Accordingly I put the chances of both a clear reversal and a clear affirmation higher than does.

I agree with him that the single most likely outcome is probably a reversal on the basis that Trump's behaviour did not constitute engaging in an insurrection. But I also think it's very possible that many of the Republican justices will be willing to sign on to the Baude/Paulson analysis in full. There's obviously instinctive resistance to the idea of going against public opinion, but logically any eligibility criteria is meant to be applied in the face of popular will - if they were not, then normal democratic processes would be enough.

The sky won't fall if Trump is found ineligible. We threw fifteen(!) politicians out of parliament because they were constitutionally ineligible a few years ago and while it caused a bit of drama, the world kept turning. Retaliatory actions may be attempted but they will need to get through the courts too, and if they do so successfully, they will be justified.

There is a clear and compelling need right now for clarity that only the Supreme Court can provide

Not quite only the supreme court—if they can get the votes, Congress can suspend the whole issue, in this and all future cases, as the amendment says as much.

This is beautiful in its simplicity, and the Right Thing To Do for the sake of America. But woe unto the Democratic senator or congressman who voted to remove Trump’s disability if Trump actually wins the 2024 election.

the Right Thing To Do for the sake of America

Why?

The reason why a Trump supporter would favor it is obvious, but what is the case for forgiveness from someone who thinks Trump is guilty?

There's a procedural problem -- even someone that thinks Trump is guilty of at least something substantively illegal might not believe that a State can presume this without a full and fair trial on the merits.

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