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zataomm  4mo ago (text post)   5324 thread views

Colorado Supreme Court Thread

Link to the decision

I don't know to what extent there are established precedents for when a topic is worthy of a mega-thread, but this decision seems like a big deal to me with a lot to discuss, so I'm putting this thread here as a place for discussion. If nobody agrees then I guess they just won't comment.

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Adam Unikowsky has a very good article going through all the potential outcomes from the all-but-inevitable SCOTUS case reviewing this decision and helpfully assigning a subjective probability to each one. The numbers aren't important, but it's a useful exercise to consider the various options the justices will face and the consequences that will flow from whatever judgement is reached.

I think there will be less appetite than he suggests for a procedural dodge that doesn't resolve the core issues. There is a clear and compelling need right now for clarity that only the Supreme Court can provide, and I think a clear majority (maybe excepting Roberts) will accept that responsibility - and besides, all of the various available dodges are pretty ugly. Accordingly I put the chances of both a clear reversal and a clear affirmation higher than does.

I agree with him that the single most likely outcome is probably a reversal on the basis that Trump's behaviour did not constitute engaging in an insurrection. But I also think it's very possible that many of the Republican justices will be willing to sign on to the Baude/Paulson analysis in full. There's obviously instinctive resistance to the idea of going against public opinion, but logically any eligibility criteria is meant to be applied in the face of popular will - if they were not, then normal democratic processes would be enough.

The sky won't fall if Trump is found ineligible. We threw fifteen(!) politicians out of parliament because they were constitutionally ineligible a few years ago and while it caused a bit of drama, the world kept turning. Retaliatory actions may be attempted but they will need to get through the courts too, and if they do so successfully, they will be justified.

There is a clear and compelling need right now for clarity that only the Supreme Court can provide

Not quite only the supreme court—if they can get the votes, Congress can suspend the whole issue, in this and all future cases, as the amendment says as much.

True! Good point.

I'm slightly surprised no one has tried to call such a vote yet.

It seems very unlikely to get the required 2/3 vote in both houses. A substantial majority of the Senate voted to remove Trump for the same behavior only a couple of years ago, after all.

I agree it's unlikely to succeed. I'm just surprised no one has seen advantage in proposing it yet.

Probably, everyone is happy with the status quo. Even though it doesn't really make sense you can come up with a rationale why both Trump supporters and Trump detractors in Congress/Senate both don't want such a resolution. Trump detractors in the houses don't want it because their supporters would be unhappy they supported it (perhaps irrationally). Trump supporters in the houses don't want it because having the Colorado Supreme Court railroad Trump and then having the Supreme Court smack them down is good strategically. Maybe it would be good for Trump supporters if a vote was put forward, Trump supporters could support it but the vote still failed.

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