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PaperclipPerfector  2yr ago (text post)   3865 thread views

Wellness Wednesday for December 27, 2023

The Wednesday Wellness threads are meant to encourage users to ask for and provide advice and motivation to improve their lives. It isn't intended as a 'containment thread' and any content which could go here could instead be posted in its own thread. You could post:

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My modestly informed opinion that you dun goofed.

Of course, the optimal stopping problem and the sub-problem known as the Secretary Problem is relevant:

The basic form of the problem is the following: imagine an administrator who wants to hire the best secretary out of n rankable applicants for a position. The applicants are interviewed one by one in random order. A decision about each particular applicant is to be made immediately after the interview. Once rejected, an applicant cannot be recalled. During the interview, the administrator gains information sufficient to rank the applicant among all applicants interviewed so far, but is unaware of the quality of yet unseen applicants. The question is about the optimal strategy (stopping rule) to maximize the probability of selecting the best applicant. If the decision can be deferred to the end, this can be solved by the simple maximum selection algorithm of tracking the running maximum (and who achieved it), and selecting the overall maximum at the end. The difficulty is that the decision must be made immediately.

The shortest rigorous proof known so far is provided by the odds algorithm. It implies that the optimal win probability is always at least 1/e (where e is the base of the natural logarithm), and that the latter holds even in a much greater generality. The optimal stopping rule prescribes always rejecting the first n/e applicants that are interviewed and then stopping at the first applicant who is better than every applicant interviewed so far (or continuing to the last applicant if this never occurs). Sometimes this strategy is called the 1/e stopping rule, because the probability of stopping at the best applicant with this strategy is about 1/e already for moderate values of n. One reason why the secretary problem has received so much attention is that the optimal policy for the problem (the stopping rule) is simple and selects the single best candidate about 37% of the time, irrespective of whether there are 100 or 100 million applicants.

Let's assume it takes about a year to figure out if a longterm partner is The One, and you have a budget of 10 years or 10 LTPs. I'll assume a typical age range for "serious" relationships as somewhere from 25-35.

In that case, 10/2.72 is about 3.6, so you should go for about 4 steady relationships where you heartlessly break up, and then snag the next person who happens to beat all the ones that came before on whatever metric you care about. Unfortunately, you've spent 6 of said years, so not only did you break her heart, you did so in a less than optimal way :(

However, if I was in her shoes, I wouldn't even consider taking you back, someone who is willing to end an otherwise happy relationship over this isn't someone you wish to settle down with, not that I haven't felt the same way you did. However, when I did break up with my girlfriend of 5 years, it was something we both knew was coming for unavoidable reasons, and not a mere whim.

At any rate, good luck finding someone else, or at least having her take you back.

Does it feel bad to make love in a relationship you already know is ending?

I've felt worse things, like appendicitis.

Actually, not particularly, it was when cuddling and being sweet that that the pain of separation chose to time travel back and hit me when it hurts.

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