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Transnational Thursday for December 28, 2023

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Swedish Ascension to NATO

Officially Erdogan dropped his objections to Sweden joining NATO (surrounding perceived Swedish sheltering of dissidents from the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party) way back in the summer, but little forward progress has happened since then.

Turkey, Sweden and Finland reached an agreement last year to tackle Ankara’s security concerns and Sweden subsequently took steps to tighten its anti-terrorism laws, making support for extremist organizations punishable by up to eight years in prison.

But a series of anti-Turkey and anti-Islam protests held in Stockholm, some of which involved the burning of the Quran, has also angered Erdogan’s government and the Turkish public. Although these demonstrations were condemned by the Swedish government, the Turkish government criticized Sweden — which has laws protecting free speech — for allowing displays of anti-Muslim sentiment.

Now, reportedly, Turkey has come back to the table for something they care (about the optics at least) even more:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the alliance’s summit meeting in July that Sweden had agreed “to support actively the efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process.” Sweden announced it would seek improved customs arrangements and take steps to implement visa-free European travel for Turkish citizens.

Turkey’s equivalent of the House Foreign Affairs Committee has now signed off on Swedish ascension. It’ll now be voted on in the entire parliament and then sent to Erdogan for his signature. He holds a majority so technically there shouldn’t be an issue, though reportedly some members of his party are upset by recent Kurdish attacks on a Turkish base, resurrecting the whole Sweden-KPP thing in people’s minds.

Now the only holdout is Hungary, which is mad about Sweden accusing Fidesz of autocratic leanings and holding up EU funds. Previously the Hungarian Foreign Minister had “promised” that Hungary “won’t be the last holdout” in approving Sweden, which looks to be a rapidly approaching situation, but only last week Orban said that there was no deal to move Swedish ascension forward. Hungarian parliament is apparently on recess until all the way in the middle of February (somehow making American politicians appear hardworking in comparison) so we won’t have an official answer for a while anyway.

Sweden has been protecting the Kurds from the Turks?

I thought they were one of the nations that wouldn't extradite followers of that guy leading a weird religious movement slash opposition group ... What's his name? Gul?

Oh, yes. Gul Dukat. That's it. Anyway, I thought that was part of Edrogan's beef with the Swedes. My mistake.